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Send to a friendDespite the Mountain West not being a BCS conference, they are a cut above most of the non-BCSers and are better than those at the lower end of the BCS leagues.
Gradually, the Mountain West is getting more respect. Fan base is swelling due to the exposure the conference receives, especially on the East Coast compared to the other non-BCS leagues. In fact it could be argued that the MWC has greater exposure on the Atlantic side than does the Big-12 or ACC. The BCS conferences have had to sit up and take notice to how well the MWC has represented itself when it goes up against the big boys. Just last year alone Air Force handed Notre Dame a spanking, BYU beat UCLA, Wyoming defeated Virginia to go with Utah’s destruction of UCLA and victory over Louisville. In all, the Mountain West went 9-10 against BCS schools and given that two of the MWC worst teams in Colorado State and San Diego State accounted for five of the losses, it really was a commendable effort. The season was rounded off nicely when the five Mountain West teams went 4-1 in bowl games. Compare those numbers to the Pac 10, who registered an 8-5 record against non-conference BCS schools, and removing USC from the equation, the Pac-10 went just an even 5-5. The following Non-Conference Games that Mountain West opponents we had better take seriously are:UCLA at BYU, Sept. 13
Utah at Michigan, Aug. 30
TCU at Oklahoma, Sept. 27
Texas A&M at New Mexico, Sept. 6
Oregon State at Utah, Oct. 2
Conference Series Trends: AIR FORCE/UTAH Series: UNDERDOG is 7-4 SU and 10-1 ATS in L11 games. BYU/AIR FORCE series: Since 1983, the Cougars are 17-5 SU and 15-7 ATS in this series including 7-0 SU and 7-0 ATS in this situation priced as a favorite of -9 or more points. NEW MEXICO vs. SAN DIEGO STATE Series: New Mexico are 12-3 ATS their last 15 games vs. San Diego State. UTAH vs. BYU Series: This is a series that has seen the underdog cover 17 of 23 since 1982, including 14-2 ATS when getting +11 or less points. KEY MOUNTAIN WEST Conference Trend: Road underdogs are 8-0 ATS before a road game @ Wyoming. AIR FORCE Air Force like all service academies, always have to retool year by year. This year the Falcons have to find replacements for QB Shaun Carney, RB/WR Chad Hall who was the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year together with three All-Mountain West defensive performers. Not only that, but the entire offensive backfield has to be replaced along with six starters in the defensive back eight. Talking of defense, Troy Calhoun was able to transform the defense from abysmal to solid in his first year thanks in a large part to switching to a 3-4 scheme. Given all the replacements needed, it might take a few games before the new group start to produce. Air Force are 11-23 ATS on the conference road and matched up against a foe that enters off a SU win, including 6-15 ATS in this set with the Falcons coming off a conference affair. BYU I predict that BYU’s ‘Quest for Perfection’ will come unstuck. If it’s not broken before the final week (November 22nd), then the Cougars better look out, as they travel to one really upset opponent in Utah that has some serious revenge. Utah had the Cougars under control all game long before they gave up a 49-yard pass on fourth-and-18 which led to BYU’s game-winning score with 38 seconds to play. Two years ago, John Beck came up with a heart-stopping, last-second scramble/touchdown pass to beat the Utes. This year’s encounter should be on everyone’s must watch list. That aside, BYU’s offense led the Mountain West in every major category except for rushing offense. And once again this year there will be plenty of passing and lots of points as nine starters return. On defense only three starters return to the 3-4 D that finished 10th in the nation and ninth in points allowed. Even with all of the replacements, the front seven should be tremendous as the BYU coaching staff know how to plug the holes. Bronco Mendenhall has everything in place, and the schedule works out well with UCLA and New Mexico coming to Provo. BYU are 8-20 SU and 8-17-1 ATS as a non-conference guest, including 3-12 ATS in this set coming off a straight up win. BYU is 11-4 O/U off a win against a conference rival since 2005. COLORADO STATE Steve Fairchild will bring in a new and fresh attitude to the team. A slew of new starters will make it a losing year, but given last season’s ending two-game winning streak might just be something to build on. The offense will surprise very few, if any, with a big, beefy, veteran line, and the powerful 1-2 rushing punch. The Rams are just going flat out to try to flatten defenses. The defense wasn’t awful last season, but it was ranked among the worst in the Mountain West. The line isn’t anything special and has to be far more physical, but given the line backing corps is set with all three starters returning, as are the two safeties, the bits are in place to be more successful. Colorado State are 9-3 ATS as home dogs. Colorado State is 22-35-1 ATS in their last 58 games, including 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games. NEW MEXICO New Mexico has enough pieces in place to have a successful season, but not enough to get past BYU, TCU and Utah. Last year the offense did just enough to get nine wins despite not putting many points on the board. Defensive coordinator Osia Lewis has left for UTEP and Troy Reffett takes over, but there won’t be much of a change in styles as this is still head coach Rocky Long’s defense with the 3-3-5 system looking to attack and blitz and be disruptive. The system and the defense will be better than the players, and there will be production as the season goes on, but it could be a long first month. New Mexico is 19-9-2 ATS their last 30 road games, including 8-2 ATS when playing off a conference game. SAN DIEGO STATE The loss of QB Kevin O’Connell will be a huge loss and with little experience at the RB and WR positions, the offense is going to struggle to put points on the board with any regularity and will be a work in progress as the season moves along. The defense lived up to expectations last year finishing 115th in the nation in yards allowed while giving up 34.42 points per game. The potential is there for some improvement as nine starters return and the front four will have to be stronger against the run. San Diego State is 15-36-1 ATS their last 52 games after rushing for 100 yards or less. TCU They often say that you need to take one step back to move two steps forward and that is exactly what I expect from TCU’s offense this year. The offense comes together off a solid running game and this year could be devastating if the running backs (Aaron Brown and Joseph Turner) can remain healthy. The defense finished 15th in the nation and tenth in scoring defense and this year’s D should be rock-solid given that 4-2-5 should be fantastic against the run. TCU are 43-8 SU and 33-16 ATS at Amon G. Carter Stadium since 1999, including a more recent 9-2 ATS when off consecutive SU losses. UNLV Nine starters return to the Rebel Shotgun Spread which should be able to produce on a consistent basis. The line is big and strong while the receiving corps boasts one of the Mountain West’s best 1-2 punches. The one big question mark hovering over the offense is who will prove to be the most consistent at quarterback. On the defensive side of the ball, UNLV as always have plenty of good athletes and there’s more talented depth than usual. But the size of the back seven could be a big problem for new defensive coordinator Dennis Therrell. UNLV are 1-19 SU and 3-16-1 ATS in their last 20 road games. UTAH Utah’s season was in turmoil after just two weeks last year as QB Brian Johnson and RB Matt Asiata were lost in first game of the season and top receiver Brent Casteel’s services were finished in the second game. This year all the pieces are in place to explode. The defense became a killer last year as the season went on and this will be the Mountain West’s best D this year as the secondary welcomes back four starters in a five-spot rotation that led the nation in pass efficiency defense last year. Utah is 15-0-1 ATS as a conference dog versus an .800 or less opponent. WYOMING Five starters return up front which should help the running game, but let’s face it, the offense failed to improve as the weeks went past last year and struggled mightily against the better defenses. The Mountain West’s most inefficient passing attack needs more production. On defense it was the same old story it has been in past seasons . Three straight years, the Cowboy defense started strong and died at the end. On the positive side the pieces are in place to improve upon previous campaigns. Wyoming are 8-20 ATS off a SU and ATS loss. Summary While everyone assumes it’ll be BYU and their “Quest For Perfection that run out convincing winners of the Mountain West, don’t forget Utah who are loaded, TCU will be nasty again, and New Mexico are better equipped than most give them credit for. From top to bottom the conference has improved and given the returning talent and experience, everything is in place to make even more noise. Don’t fall into the trap that the BCS conferences will run rough shod over Mountain West opposition. Your wallet will be lighter taking that attitude.
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