Sure I’m a handicapper, but I’m a fan too. As a Michigander I grew up pining for the day Bo Shembechler would show up on my doorstep and ask me to wear the Maize & Blue. So every year when the preseason polls rank Michigan highly enough to contend for the national title I start daydreaming. This year the AP & USA Today polls both have Michigan in the #5 slot, just behind Texas and ahead of Florida. I’d love to believe those polls, but someone behind them is smoking crack. Why on Earth are Michigan rated so highly? Well, from most of the stories I read, the offense is supposed to be dynamite. They certainly won’t stink, I’ll grant that. But let’s look a little closer. Top RB? Senior Mike Hart has been for 3 seasons now. Over that time Hart has averaged 4.9 yards per carry. Nice, but an elite back in college football these days has to run for at least 5 yards per carry. Who is the QB? Its senior Chad Henne, who like Hart is in his 4th season manning the QB spot. Is Henne a premier college QB? Some of the numbers say so. His lowest NCAA QB rating is 129.61, which aint to shabby. 2006 saw Henne average 7.65 yards per pass attempt, putting him well up amongst the star QB’s of the NCAA. That’s the upside; now for another look. Henne simply has not grown much as a QB since his freshman year. He still tends to stare down receivers, and he often has a problem keeping his feet still when the pocket begins to collapse. As a result Henne takes too many sacks, considering how good UM’s OL has been over the last 3 years. Last season Lloyd Carr decided the running game needed revamping, so the offensive staff decided to change run blocking schemes to something ostensibly similar to the zone blocking schemes made popular by the Denver Broncos. Reportedly the Minnesota Gophers, who ran that scheme for several years, and were a big influence on Michigan’s switch. Which is odd, because Michigan’s version of the zone blocking scheme looked nothing like either Denver or Minnesota’s. It looks more like the old “Student Body Right” that USC ran back when OJ Simpson was there. For the offensive linemen it looks about as simple as can be. Just run upfield at the snap to either side and block anyone that gets in your way. The defense has its share of problems too. The 2006 squad was loaded with talent, and the advantage of a brand new defensive coordinator. Ron English completely revamped the complicated schemes of former DC Jim Hermann. Out with the complicated packages that depended on a cornerback’s ability to defend man-to-man, and in with a fairly simple soft zone coverage setup that put a priority on pursuit, both in the secondary and on the front line. English put the entire defense on a weight loss regimen designed to increase speed. It worked for 11 games. Then came Ohio State. And Jim Tressel made it look easy. He figured that if the Michigan defenders were no longer used to covering man-to-man, why not spread the defensive alignment out with four and five receiver sets and force Michigan’s secondary into man coverage? And it worked like a charm. English took responsibility for the debacle, and promised a new and improved defense when the Wolverines met USC in the Rose Bowl. It worked for a half. At the break the USC braintrust made adjustments, and in the 2nd half they moved the ball just like Ohio State did. You can bet the Big 10 coaching staffs pored over the tapes of the OSU and USC games looking for ways to duplicate their success. Last year Lloyd Carr managed to turn the Wolverines from the hunted into the hunters, and it almost worked. This season the tables are turned. The offense is explosive but predictable, and the defense lost a lot of talent to the pros. Michigan will end the season with another gaudy record, but bettors will find backing UM to be a chancy proposition. The 2007 Wolverines are overrated. Buyer beware!
 

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