Here is the updated version of my One Way Ticket article:

There has always been a strong predictor of what it takes to win games in the NFL.

The formula is quite simple: Run the ball…and…Stop the Run

Teams that have the ability to run the football effectively and can also stop the run have been long time winners, and more importantly, win more often than not against the spread. I just profiled teams in my Under A Buck strategy. These were strong defensive teams that did not allow opposing teams to run on them. As you’d expect, these teams were strong in the underdog role, especially on the road.

But now, let’s look at it from an offensive perspective. What about those teams that cannot run the ball? To define this, we’ll look at those teams who fail to average 100 yards or more per game on the ground. These teams have shown no ability to win the line of scrimmage, and have become one-dimensional to the pass. And you don’t win many games in the NFL by playing this way.

So, if it makes sense that a strong rush defense performs well in the underdog role, it should make sense that teams who cannot run the ball would be bad in the favorite’s role.

And that is exactly true, especially when these teams are installed as road favorites.

Over the last 5 years, teams that average less than 100 yards per game on the ground are just 19-28 against the spread as road favorites. That’s good for a 59.5% winning situation when playing against these teams that fall into my One Way Ticket strategy.

There were 12 teams that qualified last year for a One Way Ticket: Arizona, Atlanta, Chicago, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Kansas City, Miami, New Orleans, San Francisco, Seattle, and St Louis.

Since 2003, there have been an average of just 7.8 teams per year that end the season with a One Way Ticket. So we can expect about five teams to be cut from the above list at the end of 2008.

There are some habitual offenders on the current list. Detroit has made the final cut the last 4 years. St Louis has also bought a One Way Ticket in 3 of the last 4 years. And it should be of no surprise that the Lions and Rams have combined to go a bankroll busting 3-7 against the spread as road favorites over that time.

Be sure to check the listed flights every week, and play against those who have a One Way Ticket.