Here is the updated version of my 2 + 2 = 4 article:

There is a simple way to judge a team’s performance in college football, and it takes all of about 10 minutes to uncover. You often hear coaches say: “We need to be balanced.” Well, what exactly does that mean? In order for any team to be competitive week in and week out, they must be able to run and pass with equal efficiency. They have to have the ability to hit big plays on the ground and through the air. And that’s what coaches want when they talk about balance.

And the way we can see if a team has that balance is my 2 + 2 = 4 strategy. College football teams that can average over 200 yards rushing and 200 yards passing are very tough to beat. They’ve shown the ability to beat you both ways, and it makes it very difficult for opposing teams to stop. The teams that fit this mold are usually the top teams in the country, and we really can’t use this knowledge in their games because often they are laying four touchdowns or more. But there are other teams that also apply and they are often overlooked in the line because they are not one of the big named schools.

There were 10 teams that averaged over 200 yards rushing and passing in 2007: Florida, Fresno St, Houston, LSU, Nevada, Oklahoma St, Oregon, Texas, Toledo, and Wisconsin.

Keep in mind that their averages change week to week, but if you can isolate some of these teams that will maintain the production throughout the entire season then you will be ahead of the game.

Remember, early out of conference match-ups are usually against inferior opponents and some of these teams established their numbers on them. Be sure to see who they’ve played. If they put-up these numbers against solid competition, then more likely than not they’ll maintain the balance throughout the season. If they played cupcakes, then the numbers put-up are less meaningful and those teams will drop off production wise more likely than not.

Only two teams finished the 2006 season with this balance, Boise St and Oklahoma St. The 10 teams that qualified in 2007 was a bit on the high side. Over the last 5 years, an average of 7.6 teams have finished the year in the 2 + 2 = 4 club on the offensive side of the ball. No noteworthy spread patterns exist with these teams, but betting them in the role of a home underdog has yielded an 18-15-1 (54.5%) spread record over the last 5 years.

We can also gauge a team’s defensive balance by using this same method. Many bad defensive teams will allow opposing teams to get their balance, and thus will give up over 200 yards on the ground and through the air. These teams can’t stop anybody, and you’ll be more successful playing against these teams, especially when they are a road underdog as they are just 127-169-5 against the spread over the last 5 years.

Simply by playing against these teams, we have a solid 57% winning situation.

There were 17 teams that fit this profile in 2007: Ball St, Bowling Green, Colorado St, Florida Int’l, Louisiana Lafayette, Memphis, Middle Tennessee St, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Texas, Northern Illinois, Rice, San Diego St, Syracuse, Toledo, UAB, and UTEP.

That number was also a bit on the high side as only an average of 11.4 teams have finished the year in the negative 2 + 2 = 4 club over the last 5 years.