Search
Departments
Recommended Sportsbooks
Print Article
Send to a friend
It starts about this time every fall - the Fall of the Unbeaten. One or two undefeated contenders for the national crown in college football fall by the wayside every week. For the last couple of years this annual procession hasn't had a whole lotta spark. In 2004 the only question to be answered was "Who will USC beat to win the national title?", and last season it was "Will anyone but Texas & USC run the table?". But with Vince Young gone from Austin and the duo of Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush leaving USC, the annual whittling process actually has some suspense again. But how do we make money from the whittling down process? Well, that is what my trusty college football database is for. Here is the big picture: don't spend a lot of money expecting undefeated teams to lose at home. It happens, but not that often. We'll cover the undefeated homers in more detail in the weeks to come. But undefeated teams on the road? That is where there is some money to be made. Starting in Game 7, undefeated road teams are just 81-101 ATS since 1990. So who are this week's candidates for a fall? Here they are: Can this list be narrowed down to something a bit stronger? Well, we could eliminate undefeated road teams that are getting points - obviously such teams are *expected* to fall, and going with the crowd here doesn't make sense. We are trying to uncover the unexpected, not the expected. Earlier in the week Florida would have been eliminated from this list - they opened as a dog at Auburn. As of this writing however they are a slim(+1) dog. Still, undefeated road dogs this late in the season are not bad; just 17-18 ATS. And they have a positive average cover margin, which is another reason to throw them out of our list. So now we are down to four candidates for a fall, with an eye on Florida for any late line moves that make them a dog. So undefeated road faves this late in the season are 64-83 ATS. What kinds of home teams might do well here? Well, to believe you can actually beat one of the country's elite, it might make sense to ask our home team to have some recent success. What if we ask our home dogs to be off at least 2 wins in a row? Now we are getting somewhere. Late season undefeated road favorites are just 9-26 against the spread when facing home teams that enter the game off 2 or more wins! So out of our original list, who does that leave? Just two games - Michigan at Penn State and Florida at Auburn. Look for Michigan to fall from the ranks of the unbeaten this weekend in Happy Valley. Take the Nittany Lions +6 over Michigan. You'll need to keep a close on Florida though. Late action could make Auburn a public favorite again, in which case you'll want to stay off of Florida. Remember, the driving concept behind this system is to play the unexpected team. And if Florida is a dog, the public expects them to lose. That sort of thing has to be a great motivation to a team that is undefeated. So if Florida becomes a dog - stay away! I'll be back next week in this same space with another look at my college database for a free play and supporting tech handicapping lesson. Good Luck!
Social Bookmarking
Featured Sponsor