Many years ago the NFL invented one of the most complicated stats in the history of numbers. They called it the “passer rating.”

Nobody but a few stat geeks knows what elements are involved in the calculation. You need an hour of computer time in the MIT labs just to tabulate the thing. And, you know what? If you rank quarterbacks based on Touchdown/Interception ratio, you pretty much get the same order as whatever the passer rating data spits out anyway.

Maybe the order is slightly different in a few spots. But, the cream rises to the top, and the rocks sink in both stats. This is a case where adding a lot of complications doesn’t make something more accurate. It just makes it more complicated.

Handicapping quarterback play is going to be vital this year because there are such differences in the calibers of passing offenses. New England and Dallas have jumped out to early leads in their respective conferences with the help of great quarterback play. On the other end of the spectrum, several teams have already established that winning will be a chore because the signal caller just isn’t a threat to accomplish much.

Let’s run through the high’s and lows through three weeks of NFL action.

QUARTERBACKS AT +4 OR BETTER (50 or more pass attempts):

• Tom Brady +9
• Jake Delhomme +7
• Tony Romo +6
• Ben Roethlisberger +5
• Carson Palmer +5
• Peyton Manning +4
• Brett Favre +4
• Donovan McNabb +4
• Chad Pennington +4

A little more than a quarter of the league has already cracked +4 through the first three games. There aren’t any surprises on the list. Six of the nine have played in Super Bowls. Tony Romo might this year at his current pace. Carson Palmer and Chad Pennington have reached the playoffs though they haven’t been to the big game yet.

You may not have realized that Jake Delhomme was a bit ahead of Romo’s pace. Getting to face St. Louis and Atlanta in early action might have helped nudge him along.

On the whole, no surprises. You knew these guys were good. Any reasonable measurement of performances thus far is going to showcase that group.

QUARTERBACKS AT -1 OR LOWER (50 or more pass attempts):

• Drew Brees -6
• Rex Grossman -5
• Tavaris Jackson -4
• Jay Cutler -1
• Trent Green -1
  Josh McCown -1
• Matt Leinart -1
• Damon Huard -1
• Marc Bulger -1
• Jason Campbell -1
• JP Losman -1

It’s important to remember that this isn’t a stat with a base of zero. There are more touchdowns in a season than there are interceptions. Quarterbacks who are a shade better than 50/50 for a full season aren’t very good. Those who are on the wrong side of zero are being a negative for their team in terms of the passing game.

With that in mind, how did the two quarterbacks who played for the NFC championship fall to the bottom of the league?! Drew Brees has self-destructed with interceptions during the surprising 0-3 start for the Saints. Rex Grossman has always struggled, but even he is playing well below past standards right now. Arguably the biggest surprise of the year in the NFL is the combined 1-5 start for Chicago and New Orleans. You can see the reasons why right there in the quarterback standings.

The rest of the list is largely a group of guys who are “cross your fingers and hope” personnel. Most are young upstarts still learning the game. Marc Bulger of St. Louis is a surprise. His Rams have suffered key injuries this year, limiting his ability to get points on the board.

Handicapping is more complicated than “take the hot guys” and “go against the cold guys.” Some of the stragglers will get things rolling soon. Some of the bigger names may fall back to earth in the coming weeks. We definitely think you should use the following guidelines though when making decisions in the immediate future:

*Don’t lay points with the quarterbacks on the second list. They’re just not playing consistently enough to trust as favorites. You might be thinking “bad quarterbacks aren’t ever favored.” Look at the list. Most of those guys have been favorites already. Campbell, Cutler, Grossman, and Brees all lost outright as favorites this past weekend. Make them earn your support with a good week or two.

*Take the good quarterbacks as underdogs. Again, you’re thinking “when will I get Tom Brady or Peyton Manning as an underdog?” Fine, you won’t. Tony Romo was an underdog last week. Brett Favre has been an underdog twice. Carson Palmer is either 2-0 ATS or 1-0-1 ATS as an underdog this year depending on your lines. Some of these guys will pop up in underdog roles the rest of the season. They will give you a chance to win outright or come through the backdoor every time they take the field.

We’re not saying that this simple approach would go undefeated, or anything like that. But, the percentages will be in your favor over the long haul. The quarterback position is the most important on the field. Understanding who’s thriving and who’s struggling will help you uncover value spots every week. Rex Grossman was just a 3-point favorite over Tony Romo for goodness sake!

Also, be sure to monitor the “tweeners” who haven’t shown up on any list yet. There are a few guys who are about to get things moving. There are a few others who can’t keep dodging bullets forever. The lists of guys you should take as dogs, and guys you should go against as favorites are about to get even longer. Stay on top of developments!

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