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Golf Betting News: Value Hunting

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By: BoDog Sportsbook     Date: May 9, 2007
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If you want to win big betting on golf, there are a few things you should look for.

When Stephen Ames blew away the field last year in THE PLAYERS Championship, it stunned the golfing world.

It wasn't because the relatively unknown Ames had just won golf's "fifth major"; it was that he had done it by a whopping six shots, carding a sizzling final-round 67 on a day in which the scoring average was a humbling 75.378.

The finest golf handicapper in the world couldn't have predicted such a rout.

That said, the finest golf handicapper in the world would've certainly seen value in betting on Ames.

First off, Ames had the name. More specifically, a lack thereof. Ames had won previously on the PGA Tour (2004 Cialis Western Open), but being a Canadian who was born in Trinidad and Tobago, he didn't exactly have a rabid fan following in the United States. Not surprisingly, he went off at better than 100/1 odds to win THE PLAYERS in most sportsbooks.

Second, Ames was playing well at the time. Two weeks before his big win, he finished in a tie for seventh at the Honda Classic. Remember that golf is a streaky sport, so it's always smart to back a player when his confidence is high.

Finally, he had a history of success in the tournament, which since 1982 has been held on the Stadium Course at the TPC at Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. In 2002, he finished second by two strokes. And he might've won if not for New Zealand's Craig Perks chipping in for eagle at the 16th, making a long birdie putt at the 17th and then chipping in for par at No. 18. Two more top-20 finishes in the next three years at THE PLAYERS would follow for Ames.

It was the perfect combination in golf betting: a non-star that's in a groove while playing a course that fits his eye. And for anyone who bet a hundred bucks on the formula, at least ten grand was the prize.

THE PLAYERS Championship - Value Picks in 2007

With the 2007 PLAYERS set to tee off Thursday, let's explore a few other players who might be worth a wager in the tradition of its defending champion.

Vaughn Taylor (66/1) - Despite his spot on the 2006 Ryder Cup team for the United States, Taylor is no household name. He got a bit of a publicity boost at this year's Masters after finishing Friday's round one shot back of the lead. A 77-75 weekend resulted in a tie for 10th, but it was still a great accomplishment for the Augusta resident who admirably carried the hometown pressure.

The winner of the Renoe-Tahoe Open in both 2003 and 2004, Taylor has three top-10 finishes in 2007 and has done well in two career starts at THE PLAYERS. Last year, he snared a tie for eighth. In 2005, he still managed to finish tied for 32nd after blowing up on Sunday and shooting 79.

John Rollins (100/1) - After suffering three consecutive cuts at THE PLAYERS from 2003-05, the 31-year-old Rollins broke through in a big way last year and posted a tie for eighth. The accomplishment highlighted a wildly inconsistent 2006 season, one where Rollins found himself cut in 10 of 18 events yet still managed to win, the victory coming at July's B.C. Open. It was his second career PGA win, the first coming at the 2002 Canadian Open.

This year, Rollins has found much more consistency in his game. In 12 events he's been cut just once. Two second-place finishes - at the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic and the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill - have vaulted him all the way to fifth on the PGA Tour money list with over $1.9 million in earnings.

As NBCSports.com's Mike Purkey puts it, "He has all the physical tools and it seems the only thing left for Rollins is the confidence and the mental toughness to close the deal."

Mark Calcavecchia (100/1) - While Calcavecchia is a name known to even casual fans, the majority of them don't consider the rotund, 46-year-old a contender anymore.

They should, though. The 1989 British Open champion is playing some great golf in 2007. In March, he won the PODS Championship and since then he's cracked the top-25 three times. In his most recent outing less than a month ago at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, he finished in a tie for fifth.

Calcavecchia's best outing at THE PLAYERS came all the way back in 1990 when he finished second. That said, he was in contention as recently as 2005 when he ended up in a tie for 12th.

Scott Verplank (66/1) - It's always tough to bet on a professional golfer whose last round was an 80, but Verplank might be worth it. The 80 in question came last Friday at the Wachovia Championship, but it also came less than a week after winning the EDS Byron Nelson Championship, a tournament he desperately wanted to win in honor of the tournament's namesake, who was also a mentor to Verplank.

"I've never been choked up winning a golf tournament in my life," Verplank said last week. "There's no crying in golf, but I'm telling you, I could hardly speak."

Verplank, 42, should by now be fully recovered from the emotional drain as he heads into a tournament that's been good to him in recent years. In 2005, he ended up tied for second, one stroke behind winner Fred Funk. In 2003, he cracked the top-10 with a tie for eighth.

Odds to win THE PLAYERS Championship - The Favorites
  • Tiger Woods: 5/2
  • Phil Mickelson: 14/1
  • Vijay Singh: 14/1
  • Ernie Els: 20/1
  • Adam Scott: 25/1
  • Retief Goosen: 25/1

*PGA odds subject to change


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