Here is the updated version of my The Key To The Turnover Mint? article:

Well, not really. But in 2007, what I’m going to tell you worked very well. But first, a little about turnovers.

In the NFL, the team that wins the turnover battle covers the spread at an astronomical rate, something like over 80%. But turnovers are random, and it’s impossible to predict them. If you could somehow accurately predict them, then you would be one very rich man sitting on your own island. It will never happen, but there is a way in which you can take turnovers and use them to make a profit.

Fumbles and interceptions happen in every game, so there’s nothing drastic seeing a team have 2 or 3 of them in a game. But when that number increases to 4 or 5, that team has virtually no chance to win and basically hands the game to their opponent. And here’s where we can take advantage of that winning team’s extreme fortune.

When a team comes off a game in which they had a + 4 or + 5 turnover margin, they are a good bet-against in their next game. It’s a rare occurrence as it only happened in 26 games last season. So let’s take a look at the results in those games:

Off a + 5 or higher turnover margin game, NFL teams were just 5-5 straight-up and 4-6 against the spread in their next game. Nothing significant on the totals as the over-under also split-out at 5-5.

Off a + 4 turnover margin game, NFL teams were 6-10 straight-up and 3-13 against the spread in their next game. The over also won out going 9-7 in those games.

So teams off a + 4, + 5, or higher turnover margin game have gone 11-15 straight-up and 7-19 against the spread. The over went 14-12.

Favorites in this role went 7-8 straight-up and a dismal 4-11 against the spread.

So what we want to do is play-against any NFL team that is off a game in which they were + 4 or higher in turnover margin. Playing against these teams cashed at a 73% clip in 2007.

In the title, don’t ignore the question mark at the end. I have yet to go back and track previous years to see if this is a long term winning strategy in the NFL. Even though this was a strong winning strategy in 2007, it may turn out to be just a statistical anomaly.

We’ll soon find out if 2008 brings similar results.