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Kentucky Derby Betting: Belle of the Ball?

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By: BoDog Sportsbook     Date: May 2, 2008
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Girl power will be on display this weekend as Eight Belles reps the females in the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby.

Lately, the Kentucky Derby has lacked a woman's touch.

There hasn't been a filly in the Derby field since 1999, when Excellent Meeting posted a fifth place finish while Three Ring placed 19th. And you'd have to go all the way back to 1988 for a female winner, when Winning Colors turned the trick in dramatic fashion.

This year, Eight Belles enters the field as the lone filly competitor. She'll be ridden by jockey Gabriel Saez, a 20-year-old Panamanian making his Derby debut as well. It's a little girl power mixed with an underdog. And it makes for a great story.

"I'm willing to take a shot," Eight Belles owner Rick Porter told the Associated Press. "I know a lot of people like to see a filly run. I'm always for the underdog, so I'm making myself a good underdog."

But how big of an underdog will Eight Belles really be? While she's currently listed as a 16/1 long shot in the Bodog Sportsbook, there are some reasons to believe she's got a fighter's chance amongst the likes of Big Brown (3/1) and Colonel John (5/1).

First and foremost, there's an impressive winning streak on the line. Eight Belles has ripped off four straight victories, including a solid stretch drive at Oaklawn Park on April 6 to win the Fantasy.

Rock the Belles
Eight Belles' most recent outings:
Race/Track Finish Notes (courtesy kentuckyderby.com)
Fantasy/Oaklawn
(Apr. 6)
1st Settled early, put to drive in stretch, got up late for win.
Honeybee/Oaklawn
(Mar. 16)
1st Took control in stretch, eased under the wire.
Martha Washington/Oaklawn
(Feb. 17)
1st Settled well early, quick turn of foot, dazzling 13 1/2 length win.
Allowance/Fair Grounds
(Jan. 21)
1st Simply much the best: 15-length winner.

So Eight Belles is running well and in nine career starts has been worse than third only once. That's the pedigree part - now what about the rest of the field?

"All the boys are vulnerable," Eight Belles trainer Larry Jones told the New York Post. "There isn't one that sticks out above the others. Every one of them is being asked to do something they have not done before.

"Take Big Brown. He has had only three races and you don't win the Derby off three races. Just ask Curlin.'

Jones is referring to the hype and subsequent flop of Curlin in last year's Derby. While he's regarded as the finest racehorse today, Curlin only had three races under his saddle and finished a distant third to Street Sense and Hard Spun.

Jones' is a voice that demands attention, since he was the trainer who aided Hard Spun to his dramatic runner-up finish a year ago. The horse went on to place third in the Preakness and fourth at Belmont, a sign that Jones knows how to train horses for consistency across the board.

Of course, there are some issues surrounding Eight Belles. A filly has yet to win the Derby without taking care of male opponents in a prior race. All of Eight Belles' nine starts came in filly-laden fields, meaning the 2008 Derby will be her first time lining up against the boys.

Odds to win the 2008 Kentucky Derby
Horse Odds
Cool Coal Man 50/1
Tale of Ekati 25/1
Anak Nakal 66/1
Court Vision 16/1
Eight Belles 16/1
Z Fortune 12/1
Big Truck 20/1
Visionaire 16/1
Pyro 7/1
Colonel John 5/1
Z Humor 66/1
Smooth Air 25/1
Bob Black Jack 25/1
Monba 20/1
Adriano 20/1
Denis of Cork 14/1
Cowboy Cal 50/1
Recapturetheglory 33/1
Gayego 25/1
Big Brown 3/1

At least we know that Eight Belles isn't intimidated by the Churchill Downs mystique. During a Sunday workout, the filly ran five furlongs in 58.20, second only to Colonel John's 57.80.

Porter and Jones are also keen to see if Eight Belles can replicate the success that filly Rags to Riches had at the Belmont a year ago. She was the first filly to win the Belmont in 102 years - snapping a female drought the likes of which the Derby cannot compare.

The duo took a chance putting their prized filly in the spotlight, but do so with the notion that this field is ripe for the pickings. "We believe Eight Belles is a true mile-and-a-quarter horse, which is more than you can say for a lot of them in the race," Jones said.

Can a quick start and girl power overtake a field with no clear-cut favorite? Tune in on Saturday to find out.


 






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