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NFL Betting: AFC South Preseason Report

Tony  Stoffo
Tony Stoffo

Tony Stoffo is the author of the famous gambling book, Money Management for the Year Round Professional.
By: Tony Stoffo     Date: Jul 30, 2008
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Let me start off by saying that I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season. Many handicappers have the opinion that the preseason games should be left alone and not bet on. I feel just the opposite. If you do your homework the preseason games offer the betting public a tremendous chance to make a ton of money.  In the 2007 NFL preseason at 10starpicks my preseason selections went a documented 12-3 hitting at a solid 80%. All these plays were found in my 2007 preseason report I released.

In the preseason, many head coaches have a track record of wanting to win and some just don’t care and are just preparing for the regular season. You can find many games this preseason where you can get a definite edge. Below I have put together a list of all 32 teams with a breakdown of things to look for this preseason that will give you that winning advantage.

A very important thing to remember for this upcoming preseason is that there will be 4 new head coaches this season, so previous preseason trends for these teams are no longer valid. However I have found some nice hidden trends that can still show us a profit with these teams.

Here are the 4 teams with new head coaches for the upcoming season:

Atlanta - Mike Smith

Baltimore - John Harbaugh

Miami - Tony Sparano

Washington – Jim Zorn

OK so here are this year’s highly rated preseason money making trends for each AFC South team.

AFC South

Houston – Gary Kubiak has brought the Denver preseason winning ways to Houston with him as the Texans have went 5-2-1 against the spread in his first 2 years as head coach. With a very solid quarterback rotation in place I look for the Texans to again be a winning proposition this preseason.  Plus look for a strong showing in week # 3 against the Cowboys as Kubiak and the Texans have covered both of their dress rehearsal games. Plus have to add in here is that the Texans have seen 6 of their last 8 preseason games go over the total.

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Schaub, Sage Rosenfels, Shane Boyd, Alex Brink

Indianapolis – Even though Manning will be out for the preseason after his minor knee surgery. It will not affect the Colts preseason trends for this year as he rarely puts in any serious time in the preseason games. So there are two late preseason trends that we always watch for with the Colts. Over the past 6 years Indianapolis has been a money maker in their dress rehearsal game going 5-1 against the spread, this year’s dress rehearsal game is on August 25th against Buffalo.  While just as impressive is how poorly they play in their last preseason game of the year going 1-5 against the spread. Look for both of these solid trends to continue this year.

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jim Sorgi, Jared Lorenzen, Quinn Gray, Adam Tafralis.

Jacksonville – The Jaguars are sure known for their defense in the regular season. However head coach Jack Del Rio has pulled in the reins during the last 3 preseason’s allowing the Jaguars to open things up offensively as they work on improving their passing game. As a result the over has gone 9-3. Look for this trend to again be a money maker this year as the odds makers continue to post low totals on all of the Jacksonville preseason games.  

Probable preseason quarterback rotations:  David Garrard, Cleo Lemon, Todd Bouman, Paul Smith

Tennessee – In previous preseason’s, Titans head coach Steve Fisher had won 75 percent of his games However things started to turn around in recent years especially in the Titans preseason opener where Tennessee has now lost for 3 straight years. With the top two Tennessee quarterbacks probable not seeing much action again in their preseason opener definitely makes them a fade once again this season.

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Vince Young, Kerry Collins, Ingle Martin, Paul Thompson


 





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