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NFL Betting Notes: Week 5 Primer

By: Pinnacle Sports     Date: Oct 5, 2006
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49ers look to get on track against Raiders

After the beating the 49ers absorbed last week, San Francisco should be glad to see the Oakland Raiders come to town today.

The 49ers were totally dominated last week in a 41-0 loss to Kansas City. The San Francisco offense couldn't move the ball, while the defense couldn't even contain Chiefs' backup QB Damon Huard. San Francisco QB Alex Smith took a big step backwards with a miserable game that saw him complete just 13-of-25 passes for only 92 yards and two interceptions. Good news is on the horizon as Smith faces the vulnerable Raiders defense this week.

Oakland dropped to 0-3 last week after another lame duck performance on offense. If not for LaMont Jordan, the Raiders may have ended up with a score more like the 49ers' goose egg. Raiders' QB Andrew Walter may have thrown a touchdown pass, but overall his numbers were even worse than Smith's. Walter completed only 9-of-23 passes for 68 yards one touchdown and an interception. Randy Moss was practically non-existent all day long, catching only one pass for five yards and a TD. Jordan's 128 rushing yards and a touchdown on 20 carries were the lone bright spot on offense in the 24-21 loss to Cleveland.

It's hard to predict if this game will be an offensive explosion or a mistake-filled low-scoring snoozer. The 49ers have allowed the most points (126) in the league this season, but the Raiders have only scored 27 points all year, ranking last in the league. When a sputtering offense goes up against a leaky defense who wins? The outcome will probably depend on which version of the 49ers' offense shows up: Will it be the version that was blanked by Kansas City, or the group that put 71 points on the board in their first three games?

Oddsmakers at Pinnacle Sportsbook, opened the 49ers as a 3.5 point +106 home favorite (bet $100 to win $106) with a total of 43.5. 

Chargers welcome Super Bowl champs

While the dream of an unbeaten season went out the window at the hands of Steve McNair last week, the San Diego Chargers look to get back on track today when the Pittsburgh Steelers visit Qualcomm Stadium.

For all the furor about how the last-minute loss to Baltimore unfolded, dropping the Chargers to 2-1 (2-1 ATS - against the spread), Philip Rivers has San Diego sitting atop the AFC West along with the Denver Broncos.

Beating the defending Super Bowl champs – who at 1-2 (1-2 ATS) are in danger of losing ground in the AFC Central to both Baltimore and Cincinnati – would do wonders for the confidence of embattled coach Marty Schottenheimer and the Chargers.

LaDainian Tomlinson will be counted on for more than the 98 yards he rushed for in last week's 16-13 loss to the Ravens. After three games, LT is the only running back to average 100 yards per game in the NFL, and the Steelers' defense ranks fourth in the league allowing just 78 rushing yards against per game.

Rivers has been effective putting points on the board, as the Chargers rank sixth in offense with an average of 26.7 points per game. While attempting only 68 passes so far this season, Rivers has completed 46 of those (67.6 percent) and ranks a solid seventh in QB rating at 96.9.

The Chargers' ferocious second-ranked defense (7.7 points per game allowed) will face a Steelers' attack that has stalled under the guidance of Ben Roethlisberger after a season-opening win over Miami with Charlie Batch at the helm.

Pittsburgh was blanked 9-0 at Jacksonville in Week 2, and then lost to the Bengals 28-20 before enjoying a bye week to prepare for tonight's game. Roethlisberger will be looking to shake off any lingering concerns about his health with a strong performance.

Oddsmakers at Pinnacle Sportsbook opened the line with San Diego as 3.5-point +106 favorites (bet $100 to win $106), and the total climbed to 38 after opening at 36.5.

And then there were three

You expect this perfect-record stuff from Indianapolis. It seems Peyton Manning and his Colts gallop out to a 5-0 or 10-0 start every season, making headlines each time.

But the Bears? Or the Ravens?

Only three teams that charged unbeaten into Week 4 survived the weekend. Two Super Bowl contenders were humbled last week as the defending NFC champion Seahawks were mauled 37-6 in Chicago, while the 3-0 Bengals were pummeled at home by the Patriots.

If you listen closely, you can hear early whispers of a Chicago-Indy Super Bowl. And of the three surviving unbeaten teams, they look like the best bets to stay that way through Week 5, while the surprising Ravens, who finished off the 2-0 Chargers at home, have a tough task in Denver.

Widely recognized as the largest online sports book in the world, Pinnacle Sportsbook  is known for taking action from all players big or small. Whether it's $1 or $50,000, Pinnacle Sportsbook  has earned an industry leading reputation for being the destination of choice for seasoned professionals and sports betting novices alike.

Offering up to 60% better odds on NFL sides than other bookmakers, the oddsmakers at Pinnacle Sportsbook  list Indianapolis as a whopping 18.5 point (+102) favorite at home to winless Tennessee, while the Bears moved quickly from -8 to -11.5 (+106) favorites at Pinnacle Sportsbook to handle the Bills.

The Ravens, meanwhile, opened as 3.5-point -101 (bet $101 to win $100) underdogs to the 2-1 Broncos, who are coming off a bye week. Denver is 5-1 ATS in their past six at home with the extra week of rest.

While teams at the top of NFL food chain are changing, it's the same old teams providing the steady diet of wins at the bottom.

Tennessee, Oakland and Detroit are joined by Tampa Bay as the only winless teams, while the 49ers and Cardinals (both 1-3) have done little to shed their reputations as perennial losers.

The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS, punishing fans and bettors who bought the early hype that this year would be different in the desert. It's looking exactly the same in Arizona, except for one significant change: The Matt Leinart Era begins much earlier than most anticipated.

A 1-3 start and abysmal play by starter Kurt Warner has forced a change under center. The Cardinals host Kansas City, who clobbered San Francisco 41-0 last week and look to make it two straight. Oddsmakers at Pinnacle Sportsbook  opened the Chiefs as 2.5-point favorites in the desert, but it moved to -3 -123 after plenty of early money poured in on KC.

In the Meadowlands, a fierce division rivalry between the suddenly explosive Redskins and the rested Giants is renewed, with New York coming off a bye week (where they are 14-5 ATS the last 19 games after a bye). Washington looks to the rejuvenated Mark Brunell to Santana Moss tandem to do more damage, after hooking up for three scores in last Sunday's win over the Jags.

The Giants are 1-2, but deserve to be 0-3. In fairness, they've played three top teams in Philadelphia, Seattle and Indy, but they can't afford to lose division games. Realizing this, bettors jumped all over the line at -3, pushing it quickly to Giants -4 -109.

In Miami, the alleged Super Bowl contending Dolphins join Carolina as the only other teams with 0-4 ATS marks. The Dolphins could be headed for a 1-4 start, but they get ten points from Pinnacle Sportsbook oddsmakers who figure, if they can't beat Houston, they can't beat New England. The Patriots are listed as -10 +103 favorites to cover.

If you subscribe to the Letdown Theory, the Patriots may be primed for one after a thorough road win at Cincinnati. You could advance the theory further, believing that the Dolphins hit bottom in Houston and will rebound against a division foe.

However, Miami's offense has been dreadful with Daunte Culpepper proving to be the next Jay Fielder instead of the second coming of Dan Marino, and Ronnie Brown struggling on the ground.

In Jacksonville, the Jaguars have covered four straight meetings with the Jets. But are these two teams headed in opposite directions?

New York has won twice outright as a road underdog this season, while losing tough games at home to New England and Indy. Can they de-claw the Jaguars and send them to a third consecutive defeat? The Jets opened as touchdown dogs and will have to make the most of their time on offense if Jacksonville's ball-hogging ways continue. Jag's QB Byron Leftwich and the offense have averaged 36 minutes in time-of-possession in two home games, an edge the Jets will need to counteract. Pinnacle Sportsbook list the Jaguars as -7 -104 favorites for the tie in Jacksonville.

The contenders are distancing themselves from the pretenders early in 2006.




 






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