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Peaking at the Right Time

Erik Scheponik
Erik Scheponik

During the 2005-2006 sports season, Erik was the only handicapper to rank in the Sports Watch top 5 in all 4 major sports, winning money in all 4 (NCAA and NFL football, NCAA and NBA basketball)!
By: Erik Scheponik     Date: Feb 23, 2008
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To quote Lou Brown from the movie Major League “It’s all starting to come together” for the 3 NCAA and 1 NBA teams that Erik has circled to make some major noise down the stretch and into the postseason.

Louisville- Sometimes you can take coach’s interviews as mere coachspeak and other times there’s something to be learned. All you had to do is watch Rick Pitino after his last couple of TV wins, and you can tell that the veteran coach can barely contain his excitement over these Cardinals. Not only are his red Birds “red hot” right now, but they still remain under the radar! No one is really talking about them and that is rare for a Pitino team. His team can keep their nasty edge as they are only 18th in one poll and 23rd in the despite winning 8 out of 9 in the Big East with the only loss coming by 2 at UConn. Pitino did a good job of experimenting with different lineups early on as this team battled through injuries in November and December. He’s getting tremendous play on both sides of the court from previously enigmatic Terrence Williams who is averaging 12 points, 8 boards, and nearly 5 assists per game from his small forward position. The Cardinals press as well as any team in the country, and are third in the nation in defensive FG% (37), and 1st in the Big East in defensive efficiency (by a wide margin as opponents average an estimated 89 ppg on 100 possessions).

Outlook: Legitimate Final Four Threat. Receiving a lot less hype than other Top 10 caliber teams, which means there may be some value come tourney time.

Marquette- If the Golden Eagles can avoid the first team on our list, they can go a long way come NCAA tourney time. They’ve lost two meetings by a combined 37 points against the Cardinals this season. In those two games, the Golden Eagles shot a combined 6-29 from behind the 3 pt. line. They have been very disappointing at times this season, but the light bulb has seemingly clicked on for this bunch as of late. When they are playing together, there are few teams that can match up with them athletically in the backcourt.Their recent 7-2 SU/5-3$ surge has been sparked by talented yet inconsistent Dominic James finally accepting his role as a point guard. He has a 34-8 A/TO ratio in his last 5 games. He is dribbling less, picking his spots as a scorer, and playing defense on every possession as opposed to early in his career, when the opposite was true during stints of big games. His fellow backcourt mates Jerel Mcneal and Wesley Matthews are simply too good for James to have to go into the teeth of tough defenses every single session of every single game. Don’t let their dependence on this dynamic backcourt mislead you into categorizing Marquette as a finesse team. These guys are power guards that can get their own shot, convert after contact, and rebound like forwards.

Outlook: If this team finally plays to its talent, and James continues his efficient play and willingness to defer to others, Marquette could be an Elite 8 type team. A lot depends on their matchup as they can really cause trouble for teams that don’t have multiple perimeter defenders.

Gonzaga- Zags in the unfamiliar role of chaser in the WCC, but its not the just their usual conference dominance that is impressive as of late. They are now healthy, as junior F Josh Heytvelt and freshman G Stephen Gray missed 11 and 9 games respectively early on, and this is a team that can hurt you from all 5 positions on the court. They have 8 players averaging between 6 and 13 ppg, and are 1 of only 18 teams to rank in Pomeroy’s Top 35 in Adjusted (for schedule strength) Efficiency on BOTH SIDES of the court. Their young players are really starting to develop, and despite playing most of a brutal non-conference slate without Gray and Heytvelt, they have not lost a game by more than 10 all season. Their last two losses were very noteworthy as they lost by only 8 at undefeated Memphis (pulled to within 5 in last minute), and lost in overtime at St.Mary’s in a game where the Gaels had a huge scheduling advantage, yet needed late heroics and controversial calls in both regulation and OT to overcome the Zags. The fact that these huge performances were losses has kept Mark Few’s bunch under the radar, and there may be some value down the stretch and in the postseason action.

Outlook: Don’t let the slow start fool you. The Zags are as talented as ever, and they are a serious threat to make the Sweet 16 or perhaps even further in the NCAA Tourney.

NBA

LA Lakers-

Few realize how much Andrew Bynum had improved this season and the level he was playing at before his knee injury. He is scheduled back mid-to-late March, and if he can contribute 75% of what he did pre-inury (13 ppg, 10 rpg, 2bpg), than the Lakers are my pick to come out of the monster West conference and win the NBA championship. Phil Jackson’s offense has always worked without a great PG, and the frontcourt of Gasol, Odom, and Bynum is the NBA’s best. Don’t forget about that Bryant guy who can still play a little bit, and one of the league’s best benches, which will be even better once Trevor Ariza and Chris Mihm come back. Kobe only needed a little bit of help…He got much more than a little bit, and this team was one of the NBA’s 5-6 best before Gasol came aboard. They are currently on a 10-2 SU/11-1$ ATS run, and only 2 of those 12 games were home games. Jackson on the bench doesn’t hurt, either.

Outlook: Monitor Bynum’s knee and Kobe’s finger, as the ideal situation would be if this team would have to rest Kobe and lose a few games down the stretch to add value for the playoffs. They are currently priced behind Boston, Detroit, and at some spots even San Antonio, and Phoenix to win the NBA title. If healthy, I don’t think any of those teams will beat the Lakers in a 7 game series. Deep into the West Finals, at the least.


 




  Erik Scheponik

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