The opponent is averaging 348 yards per game on offense, and is matched up against a defense allowing 348 yards per game.  The first team is going to get outgained by the second team, and it's going to be by a noticeable amount. Except, that's not what happened. The first team is Detroit. The second team is New England. And last week's game ended with a minimal 363-361 yardage edge for the Patriots. That's a TWO TOUCHDOWN FAVORITE playing at home in cold weather versus a dome team ... in a statistical tie.

What happened? Big favorites don't always bring everything they've got in late season games against lousy opponents. They save their intensity for the games that matter. Teams with a bit of distance between themselves and second place in their divisions are even more likely to take their foot off the gas a little. That's why one of the best teams in the league was neck-and-neck with one of the worst teams in the league until the final moments last Sunday. And it's why you should be careful laying big points in December in the NFL.

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