Memphis Most Likely Top Seed to Fall; Free Throws, Not So Much

While the three other No. 1 seeds – North Carolina, Kansas and UCLA – are favored by 8.5, 11.5 and 12.5, respectively, in their Sweet-16 contests, the Memphis Tigers are laying just five to Michigan State.

The line is a reflection of both teams' play. The Spartans are coming off two 11-point wins. The first was over No. 12 Temple, which entered the tourney on a seven-game winning streak; the second versus No. 4 Pitt, the Big East tournament champions. Meanwhile, the Tigers did as expected and blew out No. 16 Texas-Arlington in the first round; however, they barely escaped No. 8 Mississippi State, 77-74, in the second.  

Free throws continue to be the most likely exit route for John Calipari's team. Memphis entered March Madness making just 59.6 percent of their attempts from the charity stripe. Against the Bulldogs, they hit just 15 of 32.

Not to worry, according to the coach, who after the game ignored the misses and focused on the one Chris Douglas-Roberts actually made with three seconds left (after clanking his first try).

"What I'm taking great pride in is we won it with Chris' free throw," Calipari said. "So all that stuff about our free-throw shooting now goes out the window, I guess."

It's not entirely clear whether Calipari was joking or not – the media sure laughed – but the Tigers' lack of freebie success has to be a big factor in the modest point spread. After all, it's pretty tough to pull away from a team in the closing minutes one point at a time.

"We were going to put Memphis at the line," Mississippi State coach Rick Stansbury said. "They missed enough free throws for us. Gave us opportunities. If they make their free throws, you don’t have the opportunities we had."

As for the Spartans, well, they've been really good. But mostly they've been tough. The guys in green owned the boards versus Pitt, out-rebounding the Panthers 37 to 26. That was a confidence booster for a team that's struggled to achieve consistency this season.

"As soon as I got my first offensive rebound and got a putback, I knew I could play with those guys, which, I think, kind of shocked the Pitt guys," said forward Goran Suton.

One other thing to like about the Spartans: Coach Tom Izzo will be making his seventh Sweet-16 appearance in 11 years. The big-game experience he brings should be a huge advantage for a squad that hasn’t made a deep run since 2005.

Twin Killers Redeem Killer Mistake

Brook Lopez came up big on Saturday. Stanford's leading scorer put up 30 points against Marquette to advance the Cardinal to the Sweet 16. His baseline leaner with just 1.3 seconds left in overtime was the winner, even if "nothing but net" it wasn't.

Brook's twin, Robin, also had himself a game, adding 18 points and snatching nine rebounds in the team's 82-81 victory.

The Lopez's performances overshadowed what would’ve been the big story had the Golden Eagles won the game: the first-half ejection of Stanford coach Trent Johnson, not the greatest show of composure by someone who should know better. As ESPN.com's Gene Wojciechowski writes, "There are certain things you never, ever do as a coach. Wearing checks with stripes is one. Asking your AD, 'Where is this NCAA rule book you speak of?' And in Johnson's case, the Cardinal sin: getting thrown out of the most important game of your season."

Thanks to his players, Johnson will have a shot at redemption against Texas, a team that has to like its chances playing in front of what should be a decidedly burnt-orange-clad crowd in Houston. Oddsmakers agree, favoring the No. 2 seed by two points.

Best Bet

Which dynamic duo will score more points? Brook and Robin Lopez of Stanford or D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams of Texas, and the 'Horns guys get a four-point head start.

Together, the Lopez twins average just under 30 points per game (19.3 for Brook, 10.3 for Robin.) Augustin and Abrams average 35.8 (19.2 for D.J., 16.6 for A.J.)

The guy with the most upside has to be Abrams. So far in the tourney, he's scored 26 versus Austin Peay and another 26 against Miami. In fact, he's scored at least 15 points in each of his last four games.

Take the Texas twosome.

Headed to the Final Four

Only because it's so wide open, take Michigan State at 9/2. Might as well make it pay.