Here is the updated version of my Under A Buck article:

In the NFL, many games are won at the line of scrimmage. Teams that can run the ball and teams that can stop the run have a much better shot at winning games. And more importantly, they cover the spread more often than not.

A good way to isolate such teams is to focus on their defensive numbers against the run. A strong rush defense in the NFL is any team that allows less than 100 yards per game on the ground. Teams that can do that make it extremely difficult for other teams to move the ball consistently. Being one dimensional in the NFL is suicide. If a team can take away the run, then they have a huge advantage as the game goes on.

And teams that hold their opponents to less than 100 yards per game on the ground qualify in my Under A Buck strategy.

The best way to take advantage of this information is to play on these strong defensive teams when they are an underdog.

Over the last 5 years, teams that allow less than 100 yards per game on the ground have gone 118-84-8 against the spread. That’s good for 58.4% winners.

Breaking it down further, home underdogs in this role have gone 26-20 against the spread for 56.5% winners.

Road underdogs have gone 92-64-8 against the spread for 58.9% winners.

Not too shabby for a very simplistic strategy.

Eleven teams finished the 2007 season holding their opponents to less than 100 rushing yards per game: Arizona, Baltimore, Dallas, Jacksonville, Minnesota, New England, New York Giants, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Washington. And it should be noted that 7 of those teams also made the Playoffs which proves just how strong this situation is.

Keep in mind though, the defensive numbers change game after game. So in order to really take advantage of this, you’ll need to get a feel for these teams and see how many of them can keep pace throughout the season.

Over the last 5 years, an average of only 7 teams per season finish the year Under A Buck. And only 2 of the teams listed above, New England and Pittsburgh have been regulars in this category. The Patriots have qualified 5 straight years while the Steelers have qualified the last 4 years. Good bet they’ll make the final list again this season.