One of the hundreds of prop bets available on Sunday’s Super Bowl XLVI is on the margin of victory between the New England Patriots and New York Giants. And if history is any indication, it should be close.
 
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The “favorite” on Bovada’s Super Bowl odds is the Patriots winning by 1-3 points at 9/2. You can also bet on whether the game will be decided by exactly three points: yes is at +325 with no at -450. Of course four seasons ago, the Giants beat the Patriots by exactly a field: 17-14 in one of the biggest upsets in NFL history. And when the two played early this season, New York won 24-20 in ending New England’s 20-game regular-season home winning streak.
 
There have been five Super Bowls overall that have been decided by exactly three points and somewhat amazingly the past four all have involved New England. There was SB XLII vs. the Giants, along with SB XXXIX (Patriots 24, Eagles 21), SB XXXVII (Patriots 32, Panthers 29) and SB XXXVI (Patriots 20, Rams 17) in an upset that was very much like the Giants’ win four seasons ago. The only other Super Bowl decided by three points was SB V when the Baltimore Colts beat Dallas 16-13.
 
New England was involved in three games this season decided by three points, including the AFC Championship Game. New York was involved in five, including the NFC Championship game.
 
The second-favorite for margin of victory on Bovada’s Super Bowl props is New England by 7-10 points at 5/1 followed by the Giants by 1-3 points at 11/2. Could we have overtime? We did in the NFC title game and nearly did in the AFC game. But a Super Bowl has never gone to OT. Thus no is a huge -1200 favorite.
 
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