Here is the updated version of my Pass The Buck article:

Over the last two weeks, I talked about the importance of running the football and stopping the run in the NFL. In my One Way Ticket strategy, I showed you a way to play-against teams that cannot run the football. In my Under A Buck strategy, I showed you a way to play-on teams that can stop the run.

Here, I take a look at how teams perform in the passing game in my Pass The Buck strategy.

A good measure of a team’s ability to throw the football comes in a stat known as yards per pass attempt. To arrive at this number, you divide the team’s passing yards by the number of passes attempted. And you do the same on the defensive side of the ball to get a team’s allowed yards per pass attempt.

So with the offensive and defensive numbers, we can now get the yards per pass differential for each team and see if we can use the results in order to get an edge on the point spread.

Yards per pass differential is a team’s yards per attempt on offense minus their yards per attempt on defense.

There were 13 teams that had a positive differential in 2007, and there’s a way we can use this information to beat the spread in my Pass The Buck strategy.

But first, here are the 13 teams in order from highest to lowest differential: New England, Indianapolis, Dallas, San Diego, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Denver, Jacksonville, Seattle, Washington, Cleveland, and Arizona.

Here’s how we want to use my Pass The Buck strategy.

What we want to do is play-on the above 13 teams in the underdog role. These teams went 38-31-1 overall against the spread as underdogs for 55% last year.

We increase that win% significantly by eliminating all games when the above 13 teams played each other. When we do that, the spread record zooms to 19-6 for an awesome 76%.

So, to take full advantage of my Pass The Buck strategy, play-on the above 13 teams in the underdog role when facing another team not on the list.