Free Sports Betting Picks - Handicapper Guide

The best time of the sports year kicks off this week as we begin the NFL season. From preseason play and recent history we can get a good idea about some of the strengths and weaknesses of several teams.

If you like to play totals keep in mind that the Minnesota Vikings were 3-1 under the total in preseason. Sure, all the talk has been on Brett Favre and what he potentially can give them -- ... read more

NFL Win Totals
Big Al McMordie Aug 16, 2009

NFL Win Totals, By Big Al McMordie

With the NFL season just around the corner, this is good time to look at what might happen this fall on the gridiron. Future numbers are out for each team. A year ago in this column I looked at the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were projected for 9 wins, and wrote: “The Steelers had 10 wins in 2007 with the No. 1 ranked defense. The offense was already ... read more

NFL Revenge Games
Big Al McMordie Aug 11, 2009

One of the great things about sports wagering is the growth of creativity over the last decade. Futures wagers, prop bets, halftime wagering have all seen an increase, adding to the challenge and enjoyment of the industry. Other examples are “Games of the Year” and “Revenge Games” which crop up before the college and pro football seasons. Oddsmakers have various numbers posted on key games ... read more

Baseball Totals: Parks and Lineup Changes
Big Al McMordie Aug 10, 2009

Offense has been down a bit the last few seasons in major league baseball. There are many theories about this, from teams shoring up the relief staff as many games are decided in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings, to the decrease in steroids. Another factor that's always worth considering is the ballpark. It's no secret that the dimensions of parks play a role not only in how a team plays but in how a ... read more

NBA Finals Preview
Big Al McMordie Jun 3, 2009

Cleveland.com said it best: “It's time to put the puppets away. There will be no LeBron James-Kobe Bryant NBA Finals.” It looked like a shoo-in for the top two seeds to meet, setting up a Kobe/LeBron Finals. But once the Eastern Conference Finals began, you could see the Magic were a terrific team that matched up very well with the Cavs. In Game 1, Orlando shot 55% and stole the first game as a +9 ... read more

NBA Stretch Run: Is Anybody Healthy?
Big Al McMordie Feb 23, 2009

News flash: Cavaliers/Lakers in the NBA Finals. The Big 3 back in December were the Lakers out West and the Celtics and Cavs in the East. Two of those three were expected to meet in the NBA Finals. Not much has changed since, with the exception of all the injuries to key players preventing any other team from cracking that elite list.

Orlando? Certainly not a fraud, with a supers ... read more

Super Bowl XLIII: An Early Look
Big Al McMordie Jan 26, 2009

The theme of this Super Bowl is already evident: Defense or offense? The Cardinals have the No. 4 offense in the NFL, No. 2 in passing, behind QB Kurt Warner and a talented trio of three-1,000+ yard receivers. The physical Steelers have the No. 1 defense. History says defense wins championships, which is why Pittsburgh is favored. But there's a reason they play the games, as we saw last season w ... read more

Late Season NFL Adjustments
Big Al McMordie Dec 10, 2008

The Kansas City Chiefs aren’t going to make the playoffs and have had a train wreck season. This wasn’t unexpected. A local writer for the KC Star pointed out, “The Chiefs aren’t built to win football games. They’re built to be $32 million under the salary cap while Arrowhead Stadium undergoes renovation.”

But one thing that is interesting from a handicapping point of view is that ... read more

Penn State at 11-1 Odds
Big Al McMordie Oct 13, 2008

If you’ve every played billiards or chess, you know that the best players don’t simply go shot to shot or move to move. Rather, they think two or three moves ahead. A pool player uses the current shot to smartly set up his next shot, and so on. There’s a similarity in sports wagering, as well. A successful handicapper should have a good eye for short term wins, and to think moves ahead for pot ... read more

Crushing Losses and Tailspins
Big Al McMordie Oct 9, 2008

What characterized the Detroit Lions of 2007? A team that started 6-2 and had postseason visions, only to collapse and miss the playoffs. It was a team in a total tailspin the second half of the season. They couldn’t win (1-7) or cover games (1-7 ATS). Teams can feel helpless when the wheels fall off or they suffer a crushing defeat. It takes a good coaching staff to get a team to focus and pr ... read more

NFL Notes
Big Al McMordie Sep 24, 2008

Everyone talks about the great parts of football teams. The Broncos' new-look passing attack, QBs Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb, or coaches like Andy Reid, Mike Shanahan and Tom Coughlin. But sports bettors can also find winning ATS opportunities by going AGAINST certain things. The Arizona Cardinals, for instance, have been a lousy team on the road the last few years. With ... read more

NCAA Football Surprise ATS Teams in 2008
Big Al McMordie Aug 28, 2008

College football season kicks off this weekend. While all the attention is focused on teams like Florida, USC and defending champion LSU, sports bettors are more interested in teams that are going to cover the weekly number. Every year there are teams that rise and fall based on expectations.

A year ago in this column I had Georgia as a team to keep an eye on. The Bulldogs had a tough defens ... read more

The Dogs Are Out
Big Al McMordie Aug 21, 2008

It’s not your imagination: The Dogs have been barking loudly this NFL preseason. In Week 1 the dogs were 9-5-2 against the number, which is not unusual with the first look at all the teams. But Week 2 was even more extreme, with the underdogs going 11-4 ATS (with one game lined at PK'em).

Two of the biggest surprises were the Raiders and Dolphins covering (though not to me, as I had Miami as ... read more

Let The Games Begin!
Big Al McMordie Aug 3, 2008

Football is king and August kicks off the 2008 football season. Yes, exhibition football is largely meaningless for the players and coaches, with starters sitting more than playing. Yet, there are plenty of wagering angles and insights available to help identify soft betting numbers.

Teams have made offseason changes, bringing in new personnel on the field and on the sidelines. The Ravens, ... read more

NFL Season Win Totals: A Forecast
Big Al McMordie Jul 10, 2008

<>With the NFL season just around the corner, this is good time to look at what might happen this fall on the gridiron. Future numbers are out for each team. A year ago in this column I looked at the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were projected at 8 ½ wins, and wrote: “Jacksonville might have been the best 8-8 football team in NFL history in 2006. Their offense ranked 10th in the NFL (3rd in rushing) ... read more

Inside Baseball Trends
Big Al McMordie Jun 27, 2008

Baseball is unique for sports bettors because teams play in very different parks. Some parks are huge, perfect for pitchers (Seattle, Oakland, NY Mets) with large outfields and plenty of foul ground for extra pop outs. Other parks (many more so these days) are small, hitter-friendly places (Fenway, Philly, Pittsburgh, Skydome, Jacobs Field, Houston). Stats and parks can help some trends s ... read more

Handicapping Baseball Defense
Big Al McMordie Jun 19, 2008

It's important for a team to have strong defense at key positions such as outfield, shortstop and catcher. Defense at centerfield, shortstop and catcher are where the term "Strong up the middle comes from." Good teams use defense to assist their pitching, turn double plays and help keep team ERAs down. From a betting standpoint, defense can be linked to totals along with the overall te ... read more

Rise and Fall of AL Totals
Big Al McMordie Jun 12, 2008

Successful handicappers need to keep track daily of changes in baseball of things that may influence the side and total of a game. The Red Sox, for instance, went three straight games under the total when slugger David Ortiz went on the shelf with a wrist injury. When they got shut out by the Mariners as a -150 home favorite, they were without Ortiz, leadoff hitter Jacoby Ellsbury, and Manny Ramir ... read more

Back to the Future
Big Al McMordie Jun 2, 2008

There's no doubt what the theme of the 2008 NBA Finals is: Back to the Future! Celtics/Lakers is going to have producers combing through archival NBA playoff footage from the 60s and 80s, with Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain crashing the boards, and Larry Bird and Magic Johnson running the break in their short shorts. It was always billed as a clash of cultures, as well, with East versus W ... read more

NBA Playoff Notes: Adjustments and Defense
Big Al McMordie May 25, 2008

For the record, 75% of NBA teams in a 1-1 series that win Game 3 go on to win that series. That will give a little comfort to the Celtics after their surprisingly easy win in Game 3. It is already shaping up as an odd series. After home teams dominated the last round, the Celtics and Pistons then saw the road team win two of the first three games. Detroit stole the all-important home court ... read more

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