The 2010 NFL season gets underway with a re-match of last year’s NFC championship game between the Vikings and Saints. And if tonight’s game is half as good as that thriller, then we are in for a treat and one heck of a game. New Orleans beat Minnesota 31-28 and then went on to win the Super Bowl. The Vikings did out-play the Saints in that game with a 475-257 yardage edge, but thanks to a +4 turnover edge, New Orleans escaped with the win. That game was a high-scoring shootout, but we do not expect a similar type of game tonight. First off, it’s the season opener for both teams and to expect them to be hitting on all cylinders on offense right away simply cannot be counted upon. And that point is magnified for the Vikings after the Brett Favre saga over the summer. Favre has only been in camp for the last three weeks, and since his two main receiving weapons (Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin) missed significant practice time with injuries, Favre has had little time to get his rhythm and timing together. Rice is out tonight which makes Harvin the only big-play weapon for the Vikings which really limits what Minnesota can do on offense. And Favre really doesn’t know what to expect tonight. ‘Where you look at us in preseason, not much to go off of and it’s kind of, for us, a question mark. I don’t really know what to expect. What are we going to lean on? Who is our go-to guy, things like that. Last year we opened up at Cleveland. I had no clue what to expect from our team, from myself, but it sure was made a lot easier by handing the ball to Adrian Peterson that game. I had the best seat in the house, didn’t have to do too much, was never really asked to make a big play. And that was a good way to ease into it.’ A similar type of game plan will be in play for the Vikings tonight because they simply cannot get into a shootout with the Saints and expect to win. New Orleans has a terrific offense, but they were held in check by the Vikings last year. The Saints were held to their second lowest offensive yards (275), their third lowest rushing yards (68), and their fourth lowest passing yards (189) of the season by Minnesota. And since the Vikings defense was impressive in the preseason, we expect them to once again contain the high-powered New Orleans offense. The posted total is extremely high for a Week 1 game in the NFL, and because of that inflated number as well as the situations surrounding both teams, we expect a lower scoring game tonight.

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The Rockies have won six straight games and they can sweep the Reds with a win on Thursday afternoon. Jason Hammel gets the start for the Rockies. He is 7-1 with a 3.43 ERA in 13 starts at home this season. The righty has won two straight starts after defeating the Dodgers and Padres. He did take a loss back in July against the Reds, although he struck out 10 batters in seven innings of work. Orlando Cabrera (3-12), Scott Rolen (1-7), Joey Votto (1-6), Drew Stubbs (1-6), Ryan Hanigan (0-3), and Corky Miller (0-2) all struggle with Hammel. The Reds have lost five of their last six road games. They've also lost nine of their last 10 games against the Rockies in Coors Field. Rookie Travis Wood has been impressive for the Reds this season. But he has hit a bit of a wall lately as he is 1-1 with a 5.62 ERA in his last three starts. Wood has given up 11 runs and 22 hits in his last 16 innings pitched. One of his earlier starts this season was a 1-0 loss to the Rockies in Cincinnati. The Rockies are 30-23 against left-handed starters this season. They are also 46-22 at home where they are averaging over six runs per game. They are also 30-17 in daytime games while scoring 4.8 runs per game. We expect Colorado’s domination over Cincinnati to continue here as they get another solid home win this afternoon.

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The Astros and Dodgers are heading in opposite directions. Los Angeles is currently on a 5-game losing streak as their offense continues to struggle to produce runs consistently. Tonight they'll face Houston’s Bud Norris who will be glad to be pitching at home after three straight road outings. He won his last two home starts defeating the Mets and Pirates. Norris did get touched up by the Dodgers in Los Angeles back in May, but he's much improved since then. Los Angeles is 28-40 on the road this season and they are hitting right around .200 as a team in their last eight games. Houston's bullpen is 11-9 with a 4.03 ERA at home this season blowing only seven saves all year. Ted Lilly has hit a rough patch for the Dodgers. He has given up 12 runs and 19 hits over his last 17.3 innings pitched. Lilly has made two starts against the Astros this season, and in 13 innings of work, he has given up just one run despite allowing 12 hits. Jeff Keppinger (8-30), Angel Sanchez (2-7), and Chris Johnson (2-4) each hit Lilly well. The Astros are 23-14 against left-handed starters this season. They return home to Houston after going 4-2 on the road in Arizona and Chicago. The Dodgers bullpen has an ERA right around 4.50 on the road and they also have a losing record as well. Since Los Angeles is not in good current form right now, there’s some tremendous value in taking Houston on the run line in this game tonight.

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Chicago’s seven game winning streak was snapped last night as they lost to Detroit 9-1. But Chicago should bounce back strong as they have the pitching edge in Wednesday night's game against the Tigers. Detroit’s Jeremy Bonderman is 2-3 with a 6.22 ERA since the All-Star break. He has faced the White Sox twice this season and split those outings. Overall, the Tigers starter is 6-11 with a 4.81 ERA in 18 career starts against the White Sox. AJ Pierzynski (12-34), Mark Teahen (11-27), Omar Vizquel (6-22), Manny Ramirez (7-22), and Alexei Ramirez (3-9) all hit Bonderman well. If Paul Konerko plays, he also has good numbers against Bonderman going 11 for 38 with five home runs. The White Sox are 5-2 this year in Detroit against the Tigers. Chicago is also 39-34 on the road where they are hitting nearly .270 as a team. John Danks is a road warrior for Chicago. He's 6-3 with a 3.81 ERA in 13 starts away from Chicago this season. The lefty has faced the Tigers once this year and gave up just one hit in seven innings of work. Jhonny Peralta (6-29), Brandon Inge (4-18), Miguel Cabrera (4-16), Ryan Raburn (1-13), Johnny Damon (1-6), Brennan Boesch (0-3), and Austin Jackson (0-3) all have terrible numbers against Danks. As a team, Detroit is just 22-18 against left handed starters and 28-30 in the division. On the road, Chicago's bullpen has an ERA slightly over 3.00 as a unit and they’ve been quite an asset this season. Chicago holds the pitching and hitting edge in this game so we expect them to get a solid road win tonight.

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Pittsburgh has a chance to sweep the Braves with a win on Wednesday night. Atlanta is suddenly reeling after losing five of their last six games. They'll turn to Derek Lowe who missed his last start due to right elbow discomfort. Lowe has a bone chip that has proved troublesome for the 37 year old right hander. The righty is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in his last three starts giving up 12 runs and 19 hits in 16 innings pitched. The Pirates hit Lowe well with Andrew McCutchen (3-9), Ryan Doumit (2-7), John Bowker (2-7), Garrett Jones (2-5), Ronny Cedeno (1-30, Delwyn Young (2-3), and Neil Walker (1-3) all having success. The Pirates have gone Over the total in seven of their last 12 games. Zach Duke has struggled this season for the Pirates. He's 7-12 with a 5.24 ERA in 24 starts. The lefty is 0-1 with a 5.11 ERA in two starts against Atlanta this season. Almost every hitter in the Braves lineup hits Duke well. Some of the better numbers against the lefty belong to Martin Prado (9-19), Matt Diaz (6-14), David Ross (6-13), Nate McLouth (4-10), Rick Ankiel (5-8), Brian McCann (3-8), and Jason Heyward (2-3). Duke is backed by a Pittsburgh bullpen that has an ERA near 4.60 this season while blowing 14 saves overall. Both offenses should have plenty of success against the starting pitchers which means we expect a high-scoring game tonight between the Braves and Pirates.

Play OVER the total.

The Phillies could be playing for first place in the N.L. East if they win and the Braves lose on Tuesday. They'll face Florida’s Chris Volstad who is 5-5 with a 5.76 ERA in 13 road starts this season. He's a mixed bag giving up six runs in five innings to the Nationals which came after giving up one run and six hits in eight innings pitched against Atlanta. Volstad is 0-1 with a 5.63 ERA in three starts against the Phillies this season. In his last road start against Philadelphia, he gave up six runs and eight hits in four innings of work. Ryan Howard (9-20), Jimmy Rollins (7-19), Raul Ibanez (8-16), Carlos Ruiz (6-15), Wilson Valdez (5-12), Placido Polanco (2-6), Domonic Brown (1-3), and Ben Francisco (1-2) all hit the Marlins starter well. The Phillies are averaging almost five runs per game as a team, and they'll face a Marlins bullpen that might be a little tired after their doubleheader on Monday. Joe Blanton is 6-6- with a 5.25 ERA and 15 Overs in 23 starts this season. Blanton is coming off a bad outing in Colorado where he gave up six runs and 10 hits in 4.3 innings of work. He's facing the Marlins for the first time this season. Overall, he's 4-2 with a 3.44 against Florida in six career starts. Emilio Bonifacio (4-14), Hanley Ramirez (3-10), Cameron Maybin (4-10), and Chad Tracy (4-5) all hit Blanton well. The Marlins have scored at least four runs or more in three straight games and in five of their last six games overall. They are averaging over 4.5 runs per game on the road this season. We expect both offenses to dominate this game making it a high-scoring slugfest.

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Colorado has dominated the Reds in Coors Field by winning seven of their last eight match-ups. They'll hope righty Jhoulys Chacin continues his hot pitching tonight. He's 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA in his last three starts giving up just two earned runs and 12 hits in 20 innings of work. Reds hitters are just 1 for 9 against him in his career. Cincinnati has lost three of their first four games on their current road trip, and they are simply not in good current form right now. Johnny Cueto makes the start for the Reds. He's 1-1 with a 3.71 ERA in his last three starts. The last time he made a start away from Cincinnati he gave up five runs and five hits in three innings pitched against the Dodgers. Cueto faced the Rockies way back in 2008 going only three innings while giving up one run. Miguel Olivo (1-3) and Jason Giambi (1-1) have the only hits against the Reds starter. Colorado is now 44-22 at home where they are hitting over .300 as a team. Colorado has won four straight games and seven of their last 10 games overall. The Reds bullpen has an ERA over 4.00 on the road this season. We expect Colorado to continue their domination over Cincinnati as they get a solid home win tonight.

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A pair of rookies will be making their first career starts on Tuesday night in Washington. Dillon Gee makes the start for the Mets. He was 13-8 with a 4.96 ERA in 28 starts in AAA. Gee struck out 165 batters while walking 41. He also gave up 174 hits and 23 homers in 161.1 innings pitched. Gee also gave up three runs or more in four of his last five outings. All of those outings ended before a full seven innings. This means a poor Mets bullpen will be in play here after giving up loads of runs yesterday. Washington has scored five runs or more in five straight games and in six of their last seven games overall. Yunesky Maya makes the start for the Nationals. He was 1-2 with a 3.38 ERA in five starts in the minor leagues. His last two starts came in AAA where he gave up two runs and eight hits in 10.1 innings of work. Maya was a heralded Cuban pick-up for Washington. He'll face a Mets team that has seemingly given up on the season. They've lost six of eight games on their current 10-game road trip. Their record on the road is 28-46 and they are just 24-32 in the division. In a battle of rookie starters, we give the edge to Washington as their lineup and team as a whole is in much better current form than New York.

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The Rangers head to Toronto after they were swept by the Twins in Minnesota. Texas is 2-4 so far on their current 10-game road trip. Tommy Hunter gets the start for Texas. He's 5-2 with a 4.29 ERA in eight road starts this season. In his past seven starts, he has a 5.89 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP. Hunter has faced the Blue Jays twice in his career and he has giving up 10 runs and 13 hits over 12 innings pitched. Lyle Overbay (3-5) and Jose Molina (1-2) have the best numbers against the Rangers starter. Toronto is 36-29 at home where they average 4.9 runs per game. They are 5-1 against the Rangers this season and 3-0 against them at home. Toronto’s Ricky Romero is 11-8 with a 3.60 ERA in 27 starts this season. The lefty has had his most success against the Rangers this season. Romero is 1-0 in two starts against Texas giving up one run and 10 hits in 16 innings of work. Last year, he lost a 1-0 game to the Rangers in Arlington after giving up just one run and five hits in 6.3 innings pitched. Michael Young (1-9), Elvis Andrus (0-8), Matt Treanor (0-6), Ian Kinsler (0-3), Taylor Teagarden (0-3), and Julio Borbon (0-3) all struggle with Romero. Texas is 32-35 on the road and just 15-21 in daytime games. We expect Toronto’s domination of Texas to continue here as they get a solid home win this afternoon.

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This game will be played at MT&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore so it is not a home game for Navy. Despite being from the same state, you cannot call this a rivalry game because the last time these two teams played was back in 2005. Coming into 2010, expectations are low for Maryland and high for Navy, and because of that, this pointspread has been inflated a couple of points too high. When Navy plays big-name schools from BCS conferences, they are more often than not installed as underdogs. In fact, Navy has been an underdog in 13 consecutive games in this situation dating back to the 2007 season. So to see them laying this big of a price is very unusual, even though they are facing a Maryland team coming off a 2-10 campaign. While not much is expected from the Terrapins this year, they may actually be a little better than most people realize. They are a young team, but they were much younger last year as they only had 9 starters back compared to 12 this year. And they actually played in some competitive games in 2009 as five of their ten losses came by 7 points or less. And for such a young team to be in that many close games is definitely a positive sign, and something they can build off of for this year. If Maryland just takes natural progression steps forward, there’s no reason why they can’t play in competitive games once again this year. Navy had their seventh consecutive winning season after going 10-4 in 2009. And a lot is expected this year as they return 13 starters from that team which is the most they’ve had since 2006. The Midshipmen run a triple option attack which has proven to be a difficult offense to stop. But Maryland has had all summer to get ready for this game, and Navy’s usual edge of teams only having a week to prepare is negated here. The Terrapins also have a strong group of linebackers which is key in defending the triple option so that is another good sign for Maryland. The service academies have always performed much better as underdogs, and Navy is no different. Under head coach Ken Niumatalolo, Navy is just 3-5 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons with 3 of those 5 wins coming in overtime by 6, 3, and 3 points. Since Navy is in an unfamiliar role, we’ll take the generous points here with a Maryland team that is looking to prove their doubters wrong.

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This game will be played at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland so it is not a home game for Virginia Tech. This is the best match-up of Week 1 as these two teams are legitimate national title contenders. Boise St comes into this year off an unbeaten (14-0) season in 2009, and with 20 of their 22 starters returning from that team, expectations are extremely high for the Broncos. Virginia Tech had their typical 10-win season in 2009, but with just 12 starters returning, the Hokies have their skeptics. But for a program that just reloads talent year in and year out, there’s really no reason to be questionable on Virginia Tech. Can Boise St run the table again? It’s highly unlikely. The Broncos played an extremely weak schedule last year and everything broke their way. Boise went 13-0 back in 2006, but they followed that perfect season with a 10-3 year in 2007. And all three of those losses came on the road. Boise has a huge homefield advantage with their blue turf, but this team has not been as dominant away from home, especially when they play talented teams like Virginia Tech. And tonight’s game is when they are most vulnerable because of the opponent, and the fact that they opened as the favorite in this game has added more fuel to Virginia Tech’s fire. Virginia Tech has been waiting for this game all summer long. Now every team can’t wait for their season opener, but the Hokies have had a chip on their shoulder since July. The players received an e-mail from the coaching staff informing them that oddsmakers had pegged Boise State as the favorite. Getting that e-mail just ‘makes you more eager to play this first game,’ said Tech's quarterback Tyrod Taylor. While the line has since moved in Virginia Tech’s direction, the fact that the players have had it implanted that they are the underdogs here still makes it meaningful motivation. We feel Virginia Tech is the better team anyway, and since we don’t think Boise St will repeat last year’s record, we’ll play the more talented team in this game tonight.

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Washington returns home after winning a road series while the Mets head into Washington as losers of five of their seven games so far on their current road trip. New York’s Mike Pelfrey doesn't like pitching on the road. He's 5-5 with a 4.87 ERA in 12 starts away from New York this season. He took a loss in Atlanta after giving up four runs and nine hits in five innings of work. Pelfrey has faced the Nationals twice this season with both of those games in New York. In 11.7 innings, the Mets starter gave up six runs and 11 hits. Ian Desmond (4-8) and Pudge Rodriguez (2-3) have good numbers against Pelfrey. Washington has scored 41 runs in their last six games. They are hitting over .300 as a team over their last eight games and they return home where they smack out 4.1 runs per game. The Mets bullpen has an ERA over 4.40 on the road and they’ve lost 17 games this season. Jordan Zimmermann's second start was a lot better then his first. The Nationals starter gave up one hit while striking out nine Marlins in six innings of work. Unfortunately for him, Washington was shutout so he was given a no-decision. The righty pitched well against the Mets last year as he gave up one run in 5.3 innings of work last April. The Mets are 28-45 on the road this season where they are hitting right around .240 as a team. They'll face a Nationals bullpen that is 17-7 with a 3.27 ERA this season at home. Washington is in better current form right now so we’ll look for their momentum to continue here as they get a solid home win this afternoon.

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Los Angeles looks to win this three-game series versus the Giants on Sunday night. Despite trailing 4-3 in the ninth inning last night, the Giants pulled out the 5-4 win, but they are still batting just .192 as a team during the past eight games. They are facing a pitcher tonight with whom they've had limited to no success against. Kuroda is 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA in six starts against the Giants. In two starts towards the end of last season, Kuroda gave up just three runs and nine hits in 14.3 innings of work. San Francisco hitters are 11 for 72 against Kuroda with Cody Ross (4-15) and Freddy Sanchez (2-12) providing the most hits of the group. Los Angeles' bullpen has an 3.86 ERA and 1.283 WHIP at home and they haven’t been as toxic with Broxton no longer in the closer’s role. Jonathan Sanchez is looking for his first win against Los Angeles. He's 0-5 with a 6.25 ERA in nine career starts against the Dodgers. He has already taken a loss against them this season after giving up five runs and six hits in five innings of work. Sanchez has given up 14 runs over his last 13.6 innings pitched against this Dodgers lineup. Matt Kemp (9-20), Jamey Carroll (2-7), and Ryan Theriot (1-2) have good numbers against Sanchez. The Dodgers are 41-30 at home and 31-19 against the N.L. West. They'll face a Giants’ bullpen that has an 4.02 ERA and 1.534 WHIP on the road this season. We’ll back the home team here, especially since Sanchez has had no success against them in his career.

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These two teams appear to be heading in opposite directions for the 2010 season. Neither team should resemble what they looked liked a season ago as Tulsa should be much improved after going 5-7 in 2009 while East Carolina should regress off their 9-5 campaign last year. While the pointspread may look a tad high based on what these teams have accomplished in the past, the reality is that the oddsmakers set this game just right with the projection of each team this season rather than setting a number based on the team’s past. Tulsa is in their fourth year under head coach Todd Graham. He had his first losing season at Tulsa last year after winning just five games; Graham led the Hurricane to a 21-7 record in his first two seasons. But there was a reason for losing last year. Tulsa scheduled aggressively as they played Oklahoma and Boise St out of conference; two games they obviously lost. Under Graham, Tulsa comes out of the gate firing on all cylinders. Over the last three years, Tulsa has opened with a road game and they are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in those games winning by 18, 23, and 24 points. With 9 starters back on offense including quarterback GJ Kinne, we expect more of the same from the Hurricane this afternoon. East Carolina figures to regress sharply in 2010. The Pirates have won the last two Conference-USA titles, but they’ll be hard-pressed to have a winning season this year. Skip Holtz has moved on to be the head coach at South Florida, and his loss is huge for ECU. Also gone are 14 starters, and since they are revamping their offensive and defensive schemes under new head coach Ruffin McNeill, the Pirates will struggle mightily early in the season. Tulsa is in much better shape for this game, and with Graham’s history of fast starts, we expect them to get a solid road win this afternoon.

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The Tigers have won three straight games and they can sweep the Royals with a win on Sunday afternoon. They'll face a pitcher that they absolutely dominate. Kyle Davies is 2-7 with a 6.09 ERA in 10 career starts against the Tigers. Davies has split two outings against Detroit this season, but he has given up 10 runs and 19 hits overall. Davies is 0-2 with a 5.31 ERA in his last three starts as he has given up 29 hits over that span. The list is long of hitters who smack Davies around and it includes Miguel Cabrera (9-31), Gerald Laird (5-17), Jhonny Peralta (8-14), Ryan Raburn (5-11), Austin Jackson (2-4), Brennan Boesch (2-3), Will Rhymes (2-3), and Alex Avila (1-2). Detroit has scored 25 runs during their current three game winning streak. The Royals bullpen is now 10-12 at home with an ERA near 4.60. On the other end of the spectrum is Detroit’s Armando Galarraga who is 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in six starts against the Royals. He gave up one run and five hits in 6.3 innings pitched against them on August 25th. In his last 19.3 innings of work, the Tigers starter has given up just three runs. Kansas City batters are 19 for 81 against him with Mike Aviles (1-13), Josh Fields (1-9), Mitch Maier (1-9), Yuniesky Betancourt (1-4), and Gregor Blanco (0-3) doing the worst. The Royals are now 30-37 at home and 4-8 in their last 12 games. Since Detroit is in better current form and facing a pitcher they hit well, we expect them to get a solid road win this afternoon.

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J.A. Happ continues to be a great acquisition for the Astros. The lefty is 4-2 with Houston and he’s coming off a complete game two hitter at home against the Cardinals. Happ has given up just 15 runs in those seven starts as an Astro. He has faced Arizona just once and he gave up two runs and three hits in six innings pitched against the Diamondbacks last season. Only Kelly Johnson (1-7), Stephen Drew (1-3), and Justin Upton (2-3) have hits against Happ. Upton is questionable for the game and he would be a big loss to the Arizona offense. Arizona is 15-23 against southpaws this season hitting just .255 against them. They are just 11-26 in daytime games as well. We have faded Rodrigo Lopez time and time again. He's 0-1 with an 8.78 ERA over his last three starts. The righty has given up 13 runs and 25 hits over his last 13.3 innings of work. He faced Houston back in May and gave up two runs and three hits in a seven inning no-decision. Hunter Pence (3-6), Tommy Manzella (1-3), and Geoff Blum (1-2) hit Lopez well in limited at-bats. Houston has won four of their last five games and 10 of their last 13 games overall. They are hitting over .275 as a team over their last eight games. Houston will face an Arizona bullpen that blew last night's contest for the Diamondbacks. We’ll recommend a play on the Astros this afternoon since they are in good current form and facing a pitcher we like to play-against.

A trip to the minors hasn't helped Charlie Morton so far this season. The Pirates righty gave up eight runs and nine hits in 3.3 innings pitched to the Milwaukee Brewers his last time out. The loss in that game moved Morton to 1-10 with a 10.03 ERA on the season. He's 1-3 with a 5.68 ERA in four home starts; Morton took a loss against the Nationals last year in Pittsburgh. Despite losing three of their last four games, the Nationals have broken out the lumber scoring 24 runs in those games combined. Washington is 4-1 against the Pirates this season. Morton is backed by a Pittsburgh bullpen that has an ERA right around 3.80 at home. Washington’s Jason Marquis has suddenly discovered what made him a successful pitcher in the past. Marquis has given up just five runs over his last three starts picking up his first win in his last time out against Florida. Andy LaRoche (2-16), Chris Snyder (2-8), John Bowker (1-6), Delwyn Young (0-5), and Garrett Jones (0-3) have poor numbers against the Nationals starter. Washington's bullpen has an ERA right around 4.00 on the road. They'll face a Pirates team that is just 12-25 in daytime games while hitting just .237 as a team in those games. Washington holds the pitching and hitting edges here so we’ll back the road team this afternoon.

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