I'm playing on Minnesota and New Orleans to finish UNDER the number. All NFL fans remember last season's memorable showdown between these two teams in the NFC Finals. Those who follow the preseason also just saw both these teams score a lot of points in the preseason. The Vikings averaged a respectable 23.25. The Saints averaged a whopping 30.5, second most in the league. Only the Packers averaged more. (They scored 123 points to New Orleans' 122.) Anyway, with all these high-scoring games involving the Saints and with Brett Favre back in the fold for the Vikings, many will be expecting another "shootout." While we'll surely see some points scored, I think we'll find that the defense proves better than expected, with at least one of the units stepping up with a big game. While we know they're more than capable offensively, the Saints are better defensively than people give them credit for and they expect to be even better on that side of the ball this season. Keep in mind that they forced 39 turnovers last season, second best in the league. For the season, they allowed a respectable 21.1 points per game. They should certainly have plenty of confidence, after holding the Colts to 17 points in the Super Bowl. Additionally, they'll have something to prove, as the Vikes put up big offensive stats off them in the January game. True, the Saints secondary is without safety Darren Sharper. However, the Vikes will be without their top receiver, as Sidney Rice is out. It appears that Percy Harvin will likely play but it remains to be seen how effective he'll be, as he's been dealing with concussion issues. As for Farve, yes he's coming off a great season. He's also now a grandfather who is coming off offseason ankle surgery. He should have another solid season and is always worthy of respect, but I personally doubt he matches last season's lofty stats. Either way, I do expect a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson here. Childress loves to run the ball and he knows that the best way to protect his QB and to keep the Saints offense off the field. The Vikings defense is always tough and last season was no exception. They allowed 19 points per game and just 297 yards per game. In their final three games, the Vikes limited opponents to 13.7 points per game and just 228.7 yards. Even though the Saints did score a lot (31) of points against them, note that New Orleans did only manage 257 total yards. So, it wasn't like the Saints were marching up and down the field with numerous 80 yard drives. The UNDER is 8-4-1 the last 13 times that the Saints were favored in the -3.5 to -9.5 range and I expect those numbers to improve here. *9

I'm playing on TEMPLE. The Chippewas have been the best team in the MAC in recent seasons. Indeed, they've gone 32-7 in MAC play the last five years. No other team reached 25 conference wins. Things figure to be different this year though. Central Michigan loses its top running back and both its top receivers. Making matters worse, the Chipewas no longer have QB Dan LeFevour. Additionally, they've got a new head coach and are learning new systems on both sides of the ball. The defense returns only five starters. Unlike their guests, the Owls return plenty (16) of starters. They also lost just 14 lettermen. Keep in mind that this team was 7-0 at one point last season. The Owls believe they have their best team in many years. They're talking about reaching double-digits in wins for the second time in team history, the only other time coming back in 1979. Both teams had a "warm-up" game last week and Central Michigan looked better than Temple. That's worked in our favor though, as has the Chippewas' past reputation. I say that, as I feel that this line could easily be higher. Speaking of the 'line,' the Owls have thrived as favorites in this range. They're 8-2-1 ATS (10-1 SU) the last 11 times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -9.5 range. That includes a profitable 5-0-1 ATS (6-0 SU) record their last six in that role. These teams last met in 2008, at Central Michigan. The Owls had an edge in yards but turned the ball over four times and lost 24-14. Here's their chance to avenge that loss and make a statement that they're the team to beat in the MAC. *10

I'm playing on Boise State and Virginia Tech to finish UNDER the total. I successfully played on the Broncos to finish 'under' the total in their opening game last season. Facing a powerful Oregon team, Boise allowed a mere eight points. The following week, they allowed 0. This year's team returns 10 defensive starters and figures to be very tough on that side of the ball. Note that getting off to a strong defensive start is nothing new for this team. Including last year's 19-8 win over the Ducks, Boise has allowed a mere 22 combined points in its last four season openers. Including last year's win over the Ducks, the Broncos have seen the UNDER go 13-7 their last 20 September games, which had a total. They allowed 17 points per game, last year. In addition to having a powerful defense, the Broncos will also have a potent offense. They return 10 starters, including star QB Kellen Moore, from a unit which averaged 42.2 points last year. That said, in "big games," which are expected to be "close," they tend to play lower-scoring games. In fact, the UNDER is a profitable 8-1 the last nine Boise games, with a total, when the line ranged from -3 to +3. To a certain extent, that's also been the case for the Hokies. Virginia Tech has seen the UNDER go 16-9 the last 25 times that they played a game where the line ranged from -3 to +3. Virginia Tech almost has always has a tough defense. Last season, the Hokies allowed a mere 15.6 points per game, giving up only 295.5 yards of total offense. That's nothing new. Looking at the previous six years and we find that the Hokies allowed averages of 16.7, 16.1, 11, 12.9 and 12.8 points per game. This year's defense did suffer some big offseason losses. They've still got plenty of talent on that side of the ball though and Beamer always seems to get the most out of it. On offense, the Hokies run the ball regularly, which helps to keep the clock moving. With this game being played at Fed Ex Field, note that the Hokies have seen the UNDER go 15-7 their last 22 lined games on grass. Also, note that the UNDER is 3-1 the last four times that the Hokies played on a "neutral," field, when the total ranged from 49.5 to 52. I expect a hard-hitting affair with the final combined score again staying below the generous number. *8

I'm playing on Navy and Maryland to finish UNDER the total. Navy is coming off another quality season, finishing with 10 victories. The Midshipmen should be solid again this year. With their success in recent seasons, many have started to think of the Midshipmen as a high-scoring team. That's not exactly the case though. True, they averaged a respectable 28 points last season. However, the 19.4 points allowed per game was arguably more impressive. For the season, the 2009 Midshipmen saw the UNDER go 8-5. They've averaged less than 29 ppg in three of the past four seasons. Of course, running the ball so frequently helps to keep the clock moving. Maryland was poor on both sides of the ball last season. The Terps averaged only 21 points and allowed 31. With linebacker Alex Wujciak returning, the defense figures to be improved. Wujciak averaged nearly 11 tackles a game last season and earned All-ACC First-Team honors. Also, keep in mind that the Terps are normally quite stout defensively. Prior to last season, they'd allowed 22.5, 21.5, 21.8, 25, 20 and 15.8 the previous six seasons. In other words, last season was the exception, rather than the norm. The Terps, which saw the UNDER go 8-5 overall last season, have long been a profitable 'under' team, when playing in the underdog role and that's continued to the case the past couple of seasons. During that stretch, they've seen the UNDER go 11-6 when getting points. Navy has seen the UNDER go 5-3 in September the past two seasons. During that span, the Midshipmen have also seen the UNDER go 4-1 when playing on a "neutral" field. The last meeting between these teams produced 43 points. That game had an O/U line of 43, so the final score landed right on the number. This afternoon, we're getting several more points to work with and I feel that provides us with excellent value. *9

I'm playing on TULSA. I had East Carolina the last couple of times that the Pirates upset the Golden Hurricane, including last year's 44-17 destruction. I'm going with Tulsa this time though, as this should provide a great opportunity for the Golden Hurricane to exact some revenge. The Pirates have been the CUSA Champs in back to back seasons. This is a rebuilding year though. In addition to having a new coaching staff, the Pirates return only eight starters from last season, including just two on defense. They are inexperienced at quarterback and must learn new schemes on both sides of the ball. While the Pirates will surely take a step back this season, the Golden Hurricanes figure to be improved from last year. They return 14 starters, including nine on offense. Indeed they return offensive players which accounted for 98% of last season's rushing yards and 91% of last season's passing yards. That type of experience should provide a significant advantage vs. an inexperienced defense which is still learning its new system and which lost ALL of its starting defensive linemen. Tulsa coach Todd Graham was quoted as saying: "Usually early in the year, teams beat themselves. We're going to make sure we don't beat ourselves with stupid penalties and we're going to take care of the football and make sure we play disciplined, Tulsa football." The Golden Hurricane have been very strong in September in recent seasons, going 4-1 ATS in September lined games. On the other hand, even the strong ECU squads of the last couple of seasons have gone just 1-6 ATS in September. Those numbers only figure to get worse here. The Golden Hurricane dominated the Pirates the last time that they played here, a 31-10 victory in 2006. They should be a much improved team this season and I look for their edge in the experience department to more than compensate for the Pirates' home field advantage. *10

I'm playing on Texas Tech and SMU to finish UNDER the total. For years, with Mike Leach as head coach, the Red Raiders have been throwing the ball on practically every down. As you're probably aware though, Leach is gone and Tommy Tuberville (from Auburn) is now in charge. Not only will Tuberville have the team running the ball more regularly, but he should also bring significant improvement to the defensive side of the ball. While it will likely take a little time to adjust to the new 3-4 system, the Red Raiders' defenders should immediately benefit from the Texas Tech offense running the ball more often and staying on the field for longer stretches. In fairness, however, it should be noted that Red Raiders only gave up 22.5 points per game last season, including just 19 their final three games. SMU gave up 27.6 points last season but just 21.7 its final three games and only 21.7 in its four games on turf. The UNDER was 3-1 in those games and 4-2 when the Mustangs played on the road. The Mustangs offense was admittedly fairly potent last season. June Jones found his QB when Kyle Pardon took over midway through the year. Pardon, 5-1 as a starter, returns. He'll be without last year's #1 receiver (Emmanuel Sanders) though while running back Shawnbrey McNeal left for the NFL. The Mustangs have seen the UNDER go 7-3 the last 10 times that they were underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a profitable 17-5 (in games with totals) the last 22 times that they were in that role. These teams last met in 2008. That game stayed below the total by double-digits, finishing with a score of 43-7. That brought the UNDER to a perfect 4-0 in this series, dating back to 2004. While this one figures to be more competitive, I expect to see a similar final combined score here. *9