I'm taking the points with CHICAGO. I respect the Jazz and they enter tonight's game with the much better overall record. They've also been the hotter team recently. That said, the Bulls home record is actually much better than Utah's record away from Salt Lake City. Additionally and perhaps more importantly, this game is arguably much more important to the Bulls. Yes, all games are important to the Jazz right now. The Western Conference playoff race is very competitive and they badly want to finish in the Top 4 to guarantee homecourt advantage in the first round. That said, they're currently in fourth and are within striking distance of second place. Even with a loss here, they're still in pretty good shape. On the other hand, the Bulls desperately need a victory, as they're in a dogfight for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East. Currently, there are nine times battling for eight spots. The Bulls, Bobcats and Heat are all very close to each other and one of them (or the Raptors or Bucks) will be left out. This game becomes extra important when considering that the Bulls aren't nearly as good away from Chicago and that five of their next six games come on the road, with the lone home game coming vs. Cleveland. While the Jazz are extremely tough (25-8) at home, even though they've been much better on the road recently, they're still a mediocre 15-14 on the road for the season. They're 67-85 away from Utah since the start of the 2006-2007 season. Meanwhile, even with some recent losses, the Bulls are still a much better 19-12 here at Chicago. Yes, the Jazz beat up on them earlier. That was at Utah though and I've already noted that both teams are far better at home. The last meeting here at Chicago saw the Bulls, who were +2.5 point underdogs, win by eight, 106-98. The Bulls also beat the Jazz by a dozen (108-96) here the previous season. Including those results, the Bulls have won four of the last five home meetings in this series. I'll grab the points but expect the Bulls to step up and score the upset. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on Butler and Wright State to finish UNDER the total. These teams saw both regular season meetings finish above the total. However, with everything on the line, I expect tonight's game to prove to be the lowest scoring off the bunch. Both teams played excellent defense in the semi-finals. Butler limited Wisconsin-Milwaukee to 59 points. Wright State was even better. The Raiders held Detroit to a mere 50 points. That's not all that surprising, given that these were the two best defensive teams in the Horizon League this season. The Bulldogs allowed 60.5 points per game. The Raiders were right there with them though, allowing just 60.6 per game. The Raiders know that the only way they can possibly score the upset here is to do a much better job defensively than they did last time against Butler. In that game, the Bulldogs shot a whopping 67.5% from the field. While none are nearly as good as Butler, given that none of the Raiders' next seven opponents have even shot 50% from the field, (Detroit shot 39%) the Raiders should be able to do a better job defensively this time. It will certainly be a priority for them. As for the Bulldogs, they'll also be looking to step up their defensive intensity. They've already got an NCAA berth wrapped up. However, they definitely want the win here. Last season, they lost in the Horizon League title game and proceeded to get knocked out in the first round of the Big Dance. Having learned from that experience, this year, they're intent on keeping their winning streak in tact and entering the NCAA Tournament on a roll. In last year's title game, they Bulldogs lost 57-54 to Cleveland State. While that was a very low-scoring game, the Bulldogs still allowed Cleveland State to shoot 52.6 percent (10 for 19) from 3-point range. They'll make it a priority to try and make sure the Raiders don't beat them the same way. The Bulldogs have held their last four opponents here to 47, 55, 53 and 59 points. All four of those games finished below the total. Looking back further and we find that they've held 13 straight teams here to less than 70 points. These teams faced each other in the semi-finals of last year's tournament and combined for 119 points. Some of you may also recall that they faced each other in the Horizon League Finals in 2007. In that game, the Raiders upset the Bulldogs, winning by a score of 60-55. That game finished below the total and I expect this one to do the same. *10

I'm laying the points with DAYTON. There's no question that it's been a disappointing season for the Flyers. They enter this year's tournament, off back to back losses, with a 19-11 overall record and with the 7th seed in the tournament. That might be ok for most teams but this was a team which was picked (by the A-10 coaches) to finish on top of the Atlantic 10 this season. The fact that the Flyers have underachieved has worked in our favor though, as this line is lower than it could have been otherwise. The Flyers know that this is their chance to "make things right" and I expect them to start the tournament off by making a statement. The Flyers last game resulted in an upset loss vs. St. Louis. That was the final home game of the regular season for the Flyers and left a bitter taste in their mouths. The have numerous departing players and were expecting an easy win on Senior Day. As forward Chris Wright noted: "We had great dreams coming into the game -- senior night, a great crowd, playing well," "But sometimes reality turns out to be a lot different." Fortunately, for the Flyers and their fans, they get to play today's game on their homecourt. They know that their next game, assuming they win this one, will be at Atlantic City (vs. Xavier) so this is their chance to give the home fans the blowout win that they wanted to give them on Senior Day. So, what happened on Senior Day? Well, the Flyers were coming off a tough 60-56 loss at Richmond two nights earlier. That was tough to bounce back from and they had already come to the realization that, regardless of what happened vs. St. Louis, they were going to need wins in the A-10 Tournament to get to the Big Dance. I feel it was a case of a letdown from the Richmond loss combined with a look-ahead to this tournament. That said, as already mentioned, this is a chance for a "fresh start" and a chance for the Flyers to show that they really are the team everyone expected them to be. The Flyers, who led the A-10 in rebounding margin and rebounding defense, are certainly capable of blowing teams out, when they win. In fact, their last seven victories have come by 28, 14, 28, 25, 17, 15 and 16 points. The 25 and 28 point victories came against Charlotte and Xavier, a pair of teams with 19-11 and 23-7 records. The 15-point win came against these same Colonials. Including the 15 point (66-51) win here on Jan. 20, Dayton has won three of its last four games against George Washington. They're both more experienced and more talented and I look for them to deliver another double-digit victory. *9