Reason: I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. *10 As you're probably aware, both teams are coming off very "close" victories. The Patriots squeaked past Baltimore by a field goal. The Giants needed OT to beat San Francisco. As you're likely also aware, the Giants beat the Pats at Foxboro in the regular season AND they also beat them in the Super Bowl four years ago. Combine those factors with the fact that the Giants covered in the Conference Finals and the Pats did not AND we're getting a very low pointspread. Indeed, the Pats were laying double-digits when these teams faced each other in the previous Super Bowl. I feel that low number is providing us with excellent value on the "revenge-minded" Patriots. I won with the Packers in last year's Super Bowl, backing a team which I felt had an excellent QB and an elite coach. The previous year, I backed the Saints over the Colts in large part because I felt they'd have an edge in the coaching department. In this case, both quarterbacks and head coaches have been been here and won here before. While recent head-to-head meetings would suggest otherwise, I still believe the tandem of Brady and Belichick over Coughlin and Manning though. I also believe that both Brady and Belichick are the type of personalities that despise being "shown up." Everyone "expected" them to beat the Giants in the last Super Bow and they came up short. Then, these same Giants snapped their home winning streak. While every player and member of the coaching staff will (obviously) be extremely motivated to win, I expect both Brady and Belichick to "take it to another level," in an effort to "get the last laugh" against these pesky Giants. More analysis to follow ...

Reason: I'm playing on FAIRFIELD. Siena has been the top team in this conference. The Saints are closer to the middle of the pack this year though. Even with some January wins, they're still below .500, checking in at 10-12 overall. They're off a deflating home loss to St. Peter's, a game they led by 20 points. The Stags check in off back to back wins and with a 12-10 record. A closer look shows Fairfield with a 6-3 home record and Siena with a 2-8 away mark. The Stags have won their last two home games by 36 combined points. The Stags have payback on their minds. They were favored for their game at Siena by lost 73-60. They were in the middle of a stretch where they lost five of six at the time and are now playing much better basketball. At 7-4 in the conference, they've got three teams ahead of them. They expected to challenge for the MAAC title this year and know they really could use a big win here. Note that the Stags won by 13 against the Saints here last season, laying -9. In addition to having the venue in their favor, the expected tempo figures to favor Fairfield. With an O/U line in the mid 120s, note that the Saints are a dismal 2-10 ATS (4-8 SU) the past few seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 120s. During that stretch, the Stags are 13-8 ATS (16-5 SU) when doing so. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MONTREAL. Off a 3-0 loss yesterday and now having dropped three straight, the Canadiens should be extremely motivated here. Note that Montreal is 18-11 (+11.2) the past couple of seasons, when off three of more consecutive losses. Also, they're 2-0 the last couple of times that they played the second of back to back games. In fact, they won those games (vs. the NYR and at Toronto) by a combined score of 7-2. The Canadiens are 2-1 against the Jets this season and they hammered them by a score of 7-3 in the lone game here at Montreal. The Canadiens aren't a big-scoring team but they should have the advantage in that area against a Winnipeg team which is wrapping up a long road trip and which has managed only six goals in its last five games. *9

Reason: I'm playing on BOSTON. These teams have similar records. The Celtics are 12-10. The Grizzlies are 12-11. The Celtics' 8-6 home record is considerably better than the Grizzlies 5-8 mark on the road though. With this game being played at Boston, I expect the Celts to have the advantage. In addition to having homecourt advantage, I really like how this one sets up for Boston. Both teams had yesterday off. The Grizzlies blew a big lead and are off a disappointing loss in their last game though, which can be deflating. Meanwhile, the Celtics are off a close win, which can provide momentum. They've now won six of seven. Additionally, the Grizzlies are playing the final game of a road trip here - and this is a very early game, which can be tough on the road team. More importantly, they've got a big game vs. the Spurs on deck tomorrow. Not only are the Spurs the top team in the Grizzlies' conference, its a rematch of last year's playoffs. So, that's a very big game for them and it would easy to get caught thinking ahead. On the other hand, the Celtics have been at home for the entire month of February. And, they have no game tomorrow. Additionally, when they do play on Tuesday - it'll be a home game against Charlotte, a non-divisional team which is currently the worst in the entire league. So, unlike Memphis, they have no reason to "look ahead" or to try and save themselves for tomorrow. The Celtics are already 4-1 SU/ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 170s, as these types of low-scoring games (or ones which are expected to be low-scoring) seem to be to their liking. With the schedule and homecourt in their favor, I expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon. *10