I'm taking the points with TENNESSEE. Its certainly been a disappointing season for the Volunteers and they hit a new low by losing vs. Wyoming last time out. Conversely, Vanderbilt has exceeded expectations, winning their sixth game last week. However, as you know, much of that can be thrown out the window when two instate rivals collide. While Vanderbilt has had the better season, Tennessee still arguably has more talent. Of course, that's been the case for about as long as anyone can remember. Indeed, the Vols are 67-9-2 in the series since 1928, including a dominating 24-1 the last 25. In addition to the talent edge, the Vols have the schedule strongly in their favor. Vanderbilt comes off an emotional and fairly hard fought road win at Kentucky last week. That victory made them become bowl eligible for the first time in 25 years. In other words, if there is ever a spot for a "letdown," this could easily be it. On the other hand, while the Commodores have been celebrating, the Vols have stewing. That's because they were downright embarrassed by their performance vs. Wyoming. Even better, the Vols have had a bye since that loss, meaning that they have had an extra week to read the press clippings about how terrible they are. Of course, the extra rest has also given the Vols extra time to prepare while allowing a few key players time to get healthier. Fulmer was quoted as saying: "We had a chance to do some fundamental work while also physically and mentally getting some rest after nine straight football games." Speaking of Fulmer, he needs wins in each of the last two games to finish his career at Tennessee exactly 100 games over .500. While I look for the Vols to win outright, I'm happy to have the extra field goal to work with. For starters, last season's game was decided by just one point. Additionally, it should be noted that the Commodores are 1-4 SU/ATS (4-11 L15) the last five times that they played a game with an over/under line ranging from +3 to -3. During the same stretch, the Vols were 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS when playing a game with a line in that range. Look for the extra week off to pay dividends here as the Vols show some pride and bounce back with a huge effort against a team they have dominated for a century. *situational GOY

I'm taking the points with LOUISVILLE. This is a must-win game for the Cardinals, if they want any reasonable shot at making it to a bowl game. It's also their home finale. Additionally, they're looking to avenge a 38-31 loss suffered at West Virginia last season. In other words, the Cardinals have plenty of motivation. Yes, the Cardinals have lost three in a row. However, two of those losses came by eight points or less and two came on the road. Prior to that, they'd won three in a row, including a victory vs. a very good South Florida team. While the Cardinals have gone through a disappointing stretch, the Mountaineers aren't as good as they have been in recent seasons either. The Mountaineers are coming off a bye. Prior to that, like Louisville, they are coming off a close loss vs. Cincinnati. That was at home but it's also worth noting that the Mountaineers are also just 1-2 on the road. As mentioned, the Cardinals gave the Mountaineers everything they could handle last year. This year, Louisville has arguably a better defense while West Virginia's offense isn't as potent. Playing their home finale, in front of a "black out," look for the Cards to rise to the occasion with a massive effort, taking the game down to the wire and earning at least the cover. *Annihilator

I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. I won with the Eagles in last year's meeting, using that play as my top ACC play from 2007. In addition to being on the road, that was the first game of the season for the Demon Deacons. The Deacons have had an awful lot of wins since that time and I feel that they're a better team, particularly now that they'll be on their home field. Conversely, while the Eagles have played well their last couple of games, without Matt Ryan, I don't feel that they're as strong a team, as they were for last season's meeting - at least not on offense. Note that Boston College QB Chris Crane has 13 interceptions on the season. On the other hand, Wake Forest's Riley Skinner has been picked off just five times. Both teams are excellent defensively. The Deacons have been stronger on that side of the ball in conference play though. Wake Forest is holding ACC foes to 17.1 points per game. On the other hand, Boston College is allowing 27 points in conference play. The Deacons have been superb when facing quality teams the past few years. In fact, they're 13-6 ATS their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. They're also 9-3 ATS their last 12 games when playing with a line ranging from +3 to -3. With the support of the home crowd behind them, look for the Deacons to improve on those numbers this afternoon. *Personal Favorite

I'm laying the points with OKLAHOMA. Many people will look at this matchup and think to themselves, "The Red Raiders beat the Longhorns and the Longhorns beat the Sooners, therefore the Red Raiders will cover vs. the Sooners." It's not that easy though and that's not the way that one should be approaching this matchup. The Red Raiders win over Texas was rather fortunate and it came at home. Conversely, Oklahoma faced Texas at the Cotton Bowl. Big difference! The Sooners have been virtually unbeatable at home for years and they've outscored opponents by more than 30 points per game here this season. While the Sooners are 12-4-1 ATS their last 17 home lined games, the Red Raiders are 4-10-1 ATS the last 15 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 point range. The Sooners come in with a score to settle, as the Red Raiders defeated them last year. In addition to playing at home, Texas Tech was someone fortunate in that game as Oklahoma QB Bradford was knocked out with a concussion. Bradford should be around the whole four quarters this time and he's currently playing at the top of his game. Last week, Bradford threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns in a 66-28 crushing of Texas A&M. That gives him 38 TD passes for the season, which is two more than Texas Tech's Harrell, who has 36. The Sooners are 4-0 SU/ATS in four home games against Texas Tech when Leach was the Red Raiders' coach. Each of those four victories came by double-digits and they came by an average of 21 points. Look for the revenge-minded Sooners to deliver another convincing blowout here. *Big 12 Main Event

I'm taking the points with LA-LAFAYETTE. This is a huge game in the Sun Belt as these two teams are currently 1st and 2nd and this could easily determine who wins the conference. Both teams come off losses last week. While the Trojans were arguably more impressive, I expect them to have more trouble recovering from their defeat. That's because Troy was leading 31-3 in the third quarter at LSU. One would think that would have been a big enough lead but it wasn't. The Tigers scored 37 unanswered points and won 40-31! That type of loss can be very difficult to recover from and the Trojans have surely spent at least some of the week thinking about what could have been. The Cajuns also surrendered 40 points last week. However, unlike the Trojans, they finished their game with some momentum. That's because LA-Lafayette fell behind 40-7 but closed the game by scoring 22 straight points, losing by a score of 40-29. That gives them something positive to take into this week's critical contest. Favored by eight or nine, Troy won last year's game by 17 points. However, the Trojans suffered numerous personnel losses from that team, including their QB, top running back, two wide receivers and a pair of elite cornerbacks. On the other hand, LA-Lafayette returned its QB, its top four rushers, its top five receivers and its top four tacklers. In other words, the Rajin' Cajuns are a much improved team from last year. La-Lafayette's improvement has been evident by their healthy 7-3 record against the spread this season. That includes a 4-0 ATS mark in games played on turf. Note that they're now 7-0 ATS their last seven on turf. The line has climbed from its opener and I believe that gives us excellent value with the visitors. The Trojans are 1-4 ATS the last five times they were favored by greater than eight points while La-Lafayette is 3-1 ATS the last four times it was an underdog of greater than eight. Look for the Cajuns to rise to the occasion and give their hosts all they can handle here. *Sun Belt GOY

I'm taking the points with NEVADA. The Broncos have enjoyed a great season and bring a perfect record to the table. However, with the exception of a 5-point win at Oregon early in the season, the schedule has been extremely easy. The Broncos didn't play any other elite teams from non-conference play and their conference slate has also been very "easy." They haven't played Fresno State yet (do so next week) and they faced both Hawaii and LA Tech at home. Conversely, Nevada has faced two of the best teams in the country, Missouri AND Texas Tech. The Wolfpack also had to play both Hawaii AND Fresno State on the road. In other words, it's not a huge surprise that Boise has the better record. That doesn't mean that Nevada doesn't have loads of talent though. Indeed, Nevada has the nation's No. 1 run offense and also the No. 2 run defense! Nevada is off back to back big wins, scoring 41 points in each of those games. The Wolfpack have now scored more than 30 in seven straight games, averaging 42.7 points during that stretch. They gave the Broncos all they could handle last season, losing a memorable 69-67 game in overtime. The Wolfpack haven't forgotten that result and they also remember the Broncos' fans storming the field here in Reno the previous season. Boise struggled to stop Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick last season. That was Kaepernick's first start and it came on Boise's blue turf. He's a much better player now, leading the WAC in total offense. The Wolfpack are 10-1 ATS the last 11 times they played a home game with an over/under line ranging from 56.5 to 63. Look for them to give a huge effort and improve on those numbers this afternoon. *WAC GOW