Selection: 4* New England Patriots -2.5

Analysis:

We have finally reached the “Big Game” with the Patriots and Giants facing off in Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis. All the talk the last few weeks has been how hot the Giants are and how weak the Patriots defense is, so from that point of view the obvious play would be on New York. New York has been in must-win games since Week 17 of the regular season, can they continue to produce under such stressful situations? The Patriots are riding a ten-game win streak of their own and appear to be going unnoticed by the betting public. This Patriots team can score they are ranked second in yards and third in the league in points per game. They averaged 32.3 points per game this season but over their last five games, that average increased to 37 points per game. On the defensive side of the ball the Patriots have used a bend don’t break style that has held opponents to an average of 5.7 points in the second half over their last six games. New England has outscored their opponents 111 to 34 in the second half with Baltimore the only team to match them after halftime. New England’s red-zone defense has allowed two touchdowns in seven opportunities in the playoffs. Denver went one of three, Baltimore one of four. For a so-called weak defense, they have done very well helping lead this Patriots team to a ten-game winning streak and a spot in the biggest game of the year, the Super Bowl. New England’s secondary has come under continued scrutiny this season but we note that the Patriots are 13-4 ATS when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game are greater than thirty-five. The Giants offensive line struggled against the 49ers allowing Manning to be sacked six times hurried another six and knocked down twelve times in the overtime victory. The Giants offensive line scored a very low 57.7 on the NYLPI grading system for that game. The Patriots offensive line continued their season of strong pass protection grading out a very impressive 90.6 in the conference championship game versus Baltimore. The San Francisco 49ers were just one of thirteen on third down in the conference championship game versus the Giants. New York will not find that type of success against a Tom Brady led Patriots offense. Brady’s ability to get his team out of bad situations and into the right plays at the right time will be a huge problem for the Giants defense. The Patriots averaged 32.3 points per game on 428 yards at 6.5 yards per play and this came against teams that would normally allow just 5.5 yards per play. Their passing attack was a major factor all season with an average of 8.0 yards per pass play against teams that would normally allow 6.3 yards per pass play. Brady has used not only Wes Welker but his two tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski who combined for 169 receptions and 2,237 yards with twenty-four touchdowns. Gronkowski has been a beast averaging an impressive 10.7 yards per pass average thrown to him. Another key for Gronkowski has been his yards after the catch where he averages a solid 7.3 yards once he makes the reception. Talk the last two weeks has centered on the wealth of receiving options Eli Manning has and once again, the Patriots offensive weapons are flying under the radar. This bureau believes the Giants will be making a monumental mistake in overlooking the threats that surround Tom Brady. The last three times teams met during the regular season and Super Bowl, the original loser got revenge. The Giants did it in the 2007 season to the Patriots, the Patriots did it to the Rams in 2001, and the Rams did it to the Titans two years earlier. Super Bowl teams playing with revenge have posted a record of 20-9-2 ATS the last thirty-one contests. We are always careful when looking at the revenge factor it has been overused in many cases in both the NFL and College Football. For the Patriots though it has been a powerful motivating factor especially under Belichick and Brady. Those two have amassed a record of 43-13 SU and 36-17-3 ATS when avenging a loss including an 18-3 SU and 16-4-1 ATS mark when coming off three or more straight victories. In addition, Belichick and Brady have lost five playoff games together. They are 2-0 SU during the postseason in playoff loss revenge games, defeating Denver and Baltimore this postseason. We want to play against NFL teams as road underdogs when they are coming off wins in their last two road games, 17-27-1 ATS. On the revenge front, we see that the Patriots are 18-3 ATS versus a team they lost to in their previous match-up while committing at least three turnovers. The Patriots are 12-2 ATS since 2000 when facing a team they lost to in their first match-up of the season. New England is 8-0 ATS since 2001 as a favorite when facing a team they lost to in their first match-up. A check of our situational database reveals three powerful league-wide systems that are active for tonight’s game. Play AGAINST NFL teams (NY Giants) with Big Play Yardage Against more than 95 and opponents Long 3rd Down Conversion Percentage Against more than theirs, 349-474 ATS since 1994. Play ON NFL teams (New England) with Lower Strength of Victory Percentage than their current opponent as well as a higher SU Win Percentage last season, 48-15 ATS. Play ON NFL teams (New England) with Lower SOV Percentage than their opponent who is not two ATS wins ahead on the season, 33-4 ATS. With solid fundamentals, technical and situational support for the Patriots we will back them here as they get the straight up and against the spread victory over the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 4* New England Patriots 31 New York Giants 20