Other than the regular-season title in the Mountain West Conference, a chance to compete in a BCS bowl game, and state bragging rights in the “Holy War”, not much is on the line Saturday when the 16th-ranked Cougars make the short trip to Sale Lake to tangle with and the 8th-ranked and unbeaten Utes.

Riding a 12-game win streak dating back to last season, Utah is 11-0 for just the second time in school history and entered this week as one of only five undefeated college football programs. The Utes have already clinched at least a share of the MWC crown, having beaten TCU, but needs a win here to be all alone atop the standings. Utah blew away San Diego State last week in a lopsided 63-14 decision.

As for BYU, their only loss this season came at TCU back on October 16th. The Cougars have managed to bounce back and have won four in a row since then, including a dominant 38-24 victory at Air Force last week to give the program 10 wins for the third straight season and leaving them the possibility of gaining at least a share of their third straight Mountain West Conference title.

Last year, the Cougars picked up a 17-10 win in the annual meeting for their 2nd straight Holy War victory.

Quarterback Max Hall delivered another huge effort for the Cougars last week with his 354 yards and two touchdowns. Opponents also have to be aware of running back Harvey Unga coming out of the backfield. Unga posted a pair of touchdowns versus Air Force and now has eight on the season to go along with his team-best 945 yards rushing.

BYU played very strong defense early in the season, shutting out UCLA and Wyoming, along with allowing just 3 points in a win over New Mexico. Then, the team allowed at least 32 points in three straight games, but have got stronger the past 2 weeks, allowing just 12 to San Diego State and 24 on the road against a very good Air Force squad. Overall, the Cougars are 21st in the nation in scoring defense with a respectable 19 ppg allowed.

QB Brian Johnson runs the show for Utah, and might have had his best game of the season last week after under-achieving for most of the season. Despite having nine picks, Johnson has remained under control for the Utes and has 20 TDs to show for his efforts, even if he does seem to run hot and cold from one half to the next.

On defense, Utah place second in the MWC and 13th in the country with a mere 17 ppg allowed, a number only slightly better than BYU.

The pressure for perfection was on the Cougars earlier in the season, and they couldn’t quite pull it off. Now, the pressure is on Utah and there's little room for error with so much riding on the outcome. Max Hall is perhaps the better passer in this contest, and we look for him to play a great game with few mistakes.

Being a big underdog, the pressure will be off BYU and they would love nothing more than to spoil the Ute’s perfect season. As bad as the Cougars felt with the loss to TCU, they can now pin that pain on their most-hated rival, which is a very motivating factor.

As it is, BYU is 5-0 ATS as underdog of less than 21 points vs. Utah, 7-0 SU (+8.6 ppg) & 7-0 ATS (+14.9 ppg) as a regular season conference underdog off a SU & ATS win since at least 1980, 5-0 ATS off playing Air Force, and 6-0 ATS after beating Air Force.

In fact, conference underdogs are 9-0 ATS off a favorite SU win against Air Force of more than 3 points.

The BYU win over a hot Falcons team can’t be overlooked here, as it should provide a huge boost of confidence for the Cougars. Underdogs off a road win that ended an opponent’s winning streak have been quite prepared to end another as shown by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:

Play ON an underdog of more than 2 points off a road SU win against an opponent off 3 SU wins vs. an opponent off 6 SU wins and an ATS win in its last game.

Since 1990, these confident underdogs are a sparkling 14-0 ATS, while blasting the spread by 13 points per game on average.

Meanwhile, the Utes have been horrible against teams on roll. In fact, they are a nearly unbelievable 0-15 ATS (-10 ppg) as a conference favorite of more than 1 point vs. opponents off 2 SU wins. As a favorite of more than 2 points vs. opponents off 3 SU wins, Utah is SU: 1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS, failing to cover the spread by an incredible 19.3 ppg!

We played on Utah a few weeks ago as a small home underdog against TCU because they have been great as a home underdog, and they rewarded us with a late TD for the win; however, it’s a different story as a small favorite at home. The Utes are 0-6 SU (-11.5 ppg) & 0-6 ATS (-15.4 ppg) as a Saturday home favorite of less than 8 points with less than 13 days rest since 2000.

We are getting great line value here due to Utah’s crushing win over San Diego State and BYU flying under the radar since losing to TCU, but a nice spread win doesn’t mean the Utes will play well here. In fact, they qualify for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:

From Game 7 on, play AGAINST a Saturday undefeated home favorite of 3½-11½ points with less than 13 days rest off an ATS win as a favorite of 7+ points.

These unbeaten teams have failed to cover the spread in this situation FIFTEEN straight times. Actually the streak could be worse than that, as the 0-15 ATS mark goes back to 1980, which is as far back as the SportsDataBase goes. These teams have failed to cover the spread by more than 2 TDs per game. Such a spread loss here, would end the Utes’ perfect season, which is exactly what we expect to see, as the Cougars win a wild one.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: BYU 31 UTAH 28

The Cardinal will try to become bowl eligible in their regular season finale this weekend, as they invade Berkeley to tangle with the Golden Bears in Pac-10 play. Stanford fought hard but fell to Top 10 USC, 45-23 last weekend. It was the second straight setback for team, which dipped to 5-6 overall. Still, with a win in its regular season finale this weekend, the Cardinal would earn bowl eligibility for the first time since the 2001 season.

As for California, it is also riding a two-game losing streak following a 34-21 loss at Oregon State last weekend. With a win this weekend, the Bears would post at least seven wins for the seventh year in a row, a feat that the program has never accomplished before. The Bears had won five in a row of this traditional series until getting knocked off last year at Stanford.

The Cardinal have been able to produce 27 ppg mainly because of the success on the ground, where the team is averaging over 200 ypg this season. The club is churning out 5 yards per carry and has scored 25 of its 35 touchdowns via the run. Last weekend, Stanford again posted over 200 on the ground, even against a top defense like USC. On the season, Toby Gerhart heads the Cardinal with over 1,000 yards and 14 touchdowns

Stanford has had some struggles on defense at times this season and is giving up 26 ppg and 379 total ypg, but has made up for some of those yards by forcing 20 turnovers and recording 33 sacks.

The Golden Bears are averaging a solid 31.5 ppg on the year, but was limited to just 232 total yards, including only 85 rushing, in a loss to Oregon State last weekend. Quarterback Kevin Riley was sacked five times and that certainly affected his performance which consisted of 117 yards and touchdown on 11-of-25 tosses. On the season, Riley has completed just 50% of his pass attempts, with 11 touchdowns against five interceptions. Riley figures to get plenty of heat from the Cardinal rushers on Saturday.

On the defensive side of the ball, Cal has held opponents to 22 ppg and 315 total ypg. The unit is giving up 124 ypg on the ground, which should allow Stanford at least some running room. Last weekend, the Bears held Oregon State to just 145 passing yards with an interception, but they ended up allowing 194 rushing yards in the setback.

Here, we can play ON an underdog getting points in line value when comparing the pointspread to Power Ratings if the team is not in a “let-down” situation and the favorite is not in a “get-up” situation.

If the underdog has been fairly consistent with respect to its performances as compared to the Power Ratings, this will be a case of a team not getting the respect it deserves and being under-rated by the wagering public. Here, we are getting more than a FG worth of line value with Stanford according to our Power Ratings.

We also like to play ON the underdog in a late-season rivalry game that has historically been close. Certain series have a history of hard-fought, close games. Points are extremely valuable in these contests.

In Tedford’s first 3 seasons at Cal, the Bears had an easy time with Stanford, going 3-0 SU & ATS. Since 2004, however, Cal’s scoring has decreased against the Cardinal going from 41 points to 27 to 26 to 13 points last year. Meanwhile, Stanford’s scoring has gone from 3 points in 2005 to 17 to 20 points in last year’s Cardinal victory.

Stanford is 4-0 ATS the last 4 as a conference underdog, 3-0 ATS this season vs. opponents playing with revenge, and a staggering 19-0-1 ATS (+12.4 ppg) with less than 13 days rest off playing USC vs. opponents not off a conference SU & ATS win as a favorite of more than 2 points.

On the other hand, Cal is 0-7 ATS (-14.1 ppg) from Game 8 on off a SU loss the last 3 seasons, 0-6 ATS (-11.1 ppg) at home before 7+ days rest with another home game next and not an underdog of 14+ points, and 0-2 ATS (-20.8 ppg) vs. Stanford the past 2 seasons.

While Stanford has a lot to play for as they are trying to obtain bowl eligibility, the Golden Bears don’t have a lot to motivate them here, as they are destined for a minor bowl regardless of what they do the rest of the season.

With the motivation factor clearly favoring the big underdog, we expect this game to go right down to the wire and be decided by a late FG, which will give the Cardinal a spread win, either way.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: STANFORD 23 CALIFORNIA 20

A trip to the Rose Bowl is on the line for the 7th-ranked Nittany Lions Saturday, as they play host to the 17th-ranked Spartans.

Michigan State has put together a 9-2 record that includes a 6-1 mark against conference opponents. If the Spartans somehow beat Penn State and Ohio State somehow loses to Michigan, the Spartans will represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl.

On the other hand, Penn State clinches a berth in the Rose Bowl with a simple win, as it knocked off Ohio State earlier this season to claim that tie-breaker. The Nittany Lions have already earned their 20th 10-win season under legendary head coach Joe Paterno.

Michigan State is averaging 27 ppg and a modest 355 total ypg, leaning heavily on tailback Javon Ringer, and he has proven to be true workhorse. Through 11 games, Ringer has carried the ball a staggering 353 times for over 1,500 yards and 20 TDs. QB Hoyer has completed only 49% of his passes for just nine touchdowns.

Penn State possesses an offense that has achieved tremendous balance this season. The Nittany Lions are racking up over 39 ppg, rushing for 218 ypg while passing for 224 ypg. QB Daryll Clark has been solid, completing 60% of his passes for nearly 2000 yards and 13 touchdowns against just four INTs. Deon Butler, Derrick Williams and Jordan Norwood form a tremendous trio of wideouts for Clark.

There is no question that Penn State has been one of the best defensive teams in the nation this season. The Nittany Lions are yielding only 12 ppg and 259 total ypg. They are limiting foes to 101 rushing ypg on 3.0 ypc, and they have intercepted 14 passes while allowing a mere five touchdowns through the air.

Expect Penn State to shut down Ringer, get a lead, and force Michigan State to abandon the run. Spartans QB Hoyer is unlikely to rally the offense, making for a long day.

Assuming that Ohio State beats a horrible Michigan team, the Spartans will know they have NO chance for the Rose Bowl before they even take the field, or shortly thereafter. That will certainly take some wind out of their sails, giving them little to play for. Even if they lose at Penn State, the Spartans still should be assured of a New Year's Day bowl game.

Michigan State is 0-2 ATS as an underdog this season, and are 0-5 SU (-19.6 ppg) & 0-5 ATS (-14.5 ppg) on the road off a season home finale ATS win vs. opponents not off a road underdog SU win.

Meanwhile, Penn State is 9-0 SU (+25 ppg) & 9-0 ATS (+14.4 ppg) in their final home game off a conference favorite SU win and not an underdog of more than 4 points since at least 1980.

We also have the Nittany Lions active for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which tells us:

In its Final Game, play ON a 1-SU loss home team (not a favorite of more than 24 points) off a SU win in its last game and a SU loss in either of its 2 games before that vs. an opponent not off 9 SU wins.

These teams have been perfect since at least 1980, and perhaps longer than that, as that is as far back as the SportsDataBase goes, with a 12-0 SU & ATS mark.

While the Spartans motivation will likely be taken away with an Ohio State win earlier in the day over the Wolverines, Penn State will still need the win to qualify for the Rose Bowl; otherwise, the Buckeyes will go to Pasadena. The Nittany Lions aren’t about to let that happen, especially after last year’s late-season loss to this opponent cost them a better bowl. The home team will be treating this as a playoff game, while the visitors figure to fade down the stretch, allowing the hosts to roll up a SU & ATS win.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: PENN STATE 40 MICHIGAN STATE 17

The 9th-ranked Broncos hope to keep their perfect season intact as they hit the road once again to face off against the high-scoring Wolf Pack in a Western Athletic Conference showdown in Reno Saturday afternoon.

Boise State is one of five college football teams that is still undefeated at 10-0 and hoping to once again crash the BCS party. Last weekend, the team dismantled in-state rival Idaho in a 45-10 decision at the Kibbie Dome in Moscow, although they failed to beat the spread for the 2nd game in a row.

As for Nevada, they're currently tied with Louisiana Tech in second place in the WAC with a 4-2 record. The WolfPack lost to nationally ranked Big 12 teams in Texas Tech and Missouri in back-to-back games early in the season, has now have won two in a row thanks to a 41-17 triumph over San Jose State last Saturday.

Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore has been a pleasant surprise for the Broncos offense, as he finished the Idaho game 23-of-31 for 210 yards last week. Moore, along with a powerful running game, has guided the team to second in the conference and 16th in the nation in scoring with 37 ppg despite his youth.

The scoring defense is ranked first in the conference and second in the entire nation with a mere 10 ppg allowed. Here, though, they will be tested by a Nevada offense that is red-hot right now.

WolfPack QB Colin Kaepernick logged his fourth 100-yard rushing game of the season last week, while also helping the team to break a school-record for rushing in a single season with still two games to play. Kaepernick is first in the conference in total offense with his 286 ypg, while the team as a whole is first in the nation in rushing with an astounding 325 ypg being produced by the pistol offense.

While the offense was rolling up yards every which way for the Wolf Pack, the defense dominated the San Jose State running game, allowing a MINUS-23 yards on 16 attempts. The squad is second in the conference and ninth in the nation in both sacks and TFLs per game. Whether its because the offense has generated so many points per game or because the defense gets to practice against the best rushing offense in the nation, the run defense for the Wolf Pack is second-best in the entire country this week, allowing an average of only 64 ypg. This should serve them quite well here, and keep them in the game.

As good as Boise State is, this will be a very tough spot for them, as they are 0-6 ATS (-9.3 ppg) as an undefeated road favorite vs. opponents not seeking revenge for an ATS loss 8+ points. Last year, Nevada covered the spread by 24 points in their 4-OT 69-67 loss at Boise, so the WolfPack know they can play with this team.

The Broncos have been making many trips lately and it could very well catch up to them here. Coming off a road game and playing its 4th road game in 5 outings as Boise State is here, has been very hard for late-season underdogs and small favorites trying to avoid a rare loss. This is documented by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:

From Game 7 on, play AGAINST a road team (not a favorite of more than 10 points) with less than 2 season SU losses off a road game and playing its 4th road contest in its last 5 games vs. an opponent not off 2 ATS losses of more than 21 points each.

Since 1984, these teams have floundered, going 1-14-1 SU (-15.2 ppg) & 0-16 ATS (-12.9 ppg). One team has already been victimized this season, costing them a perfect season, as Penn State lost at Iowa, 24-23, favored by 7½ points.

We also note that from Game 7 on, undefeated road/neutral site teams not favored by 14+ points, despite scoring 39+ points in each of its last 3 games are 0-10 ATS since at least 1980 vs. opponents not off an ATS loss of 7+ points.

Here, we are going to play ON an underdog getting points in line value when comparing the pointspread to Power Ratings if the team is not in a “let-down” situation and the favorite is not in a “get-up” situation.

If the underdog has been fairly consistent with respect to its performances as compared to the Power Ratings, this will be a case of a team not getting the respect it deserves and being under-rated by the wagering public. The public is certainly loading up on the Broncos, but our Power Ratings actually show the wrong team being favored here, by a very slight margin.

The Nevada defense is being vastly under-rated here, and we like to play ON an underdog that is allowing less than 3 yards per rush on the season from October on.

The WolfPack are 7-0 ATS (+13.6 ppg) as a home underdog seeking revenge for a SU loss of less than 31 points in the previous season, and they certainly have not forgotten last year’s close call against the Broncos. This year, we expect the WolfPack to not only cover the spread, but to pull off the big upset win outright.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: NEVADA 34 BOISE STATE 30

The Green Wave travel north to take on the Golden Hurricane for a Saturday Conference USA clash. Tulane carries a six-game losing streak into this contest, and all but one of the losses during the slide have come by double figures. Last weekend, they dropped a 41-24 decision to UAB in front of a dejected home crowd. All but one opponent in the last six games have scored at least 35 points, so shaky defense has been a major reason for the run of futility.

As for Tulsa, it won its first eight games this season and appeared to be a major contender in Conference USA. Unfortunately, the last two outings have resulted in defeat, including an embarrassing 70-30 setback to Houston on the road last weekend. Now, back at home, they will look to get back on track.

Tulane is scoring less than 19 ppg, as they have been inept at running or passing the ball. The team is rushing for an average of just 3.8 yards per attempt, and 13 interceptions haven't done much to help the cause. The ground attack is led by Andre Anderson's 864 yards and seven scores, but he was lost for the season with a shoulder injury a few weeks ago. Jeremy Williams is the best of the team's receivers, as he scored five touchdowns on 27 catches in five games, but he has also been lost for the season because of knee injury. Clearly, the Tulane team that will take the field this weekend is seriously depleted.

Tulane is yielding more than 31 ppg, as they have struggled mightily against the run, allowing 5.2 yards per attempt and 175.3 ypg, and they are permitting 11.3 yards per pass completion. Tulane surrendered 426 total yards to pitiful UAB last weekend, including 272 rushing yards on 46 attempts. The Green Wave yielded four touchdowns on the ground and were simply pushed around in the contest by a horrible Blazer team and now have to face a very good and very angry football team in their final home game.

Tulsa is averaging a staggering 50 ppg and 584 total ypg this season, as the offense has scored a total of 65 touchdowns. QB Johnson has thrown for 37 touchdowns against 11 interceptions, completing 66% of his passes for over 3,000 yards.

The Golden Hurricane defense obviously played horribly last week, giving up 70 points, and desperately need a solid win to get on track. The Green Wave have nothing but pride to play for, and they don’t seem to have much of that left, so this should get ugly in a hurry. With the Tulane offense simply too depleted at this point to pose a serious threat, there’s little hope of them mounting any sort of comeback once they fall behind big.

The Green Wave is 0-8 SU (-25 ppg) & 0-8 ATS (-11 ppg) as an underdog of more than 9 points vs. an opponent off a SU loss of 3+ points as a favorite of more than 1 point.

We often look to play ON a team with at least some pride off a horrible performance. A team that has hit a new low with an awful showing will be determined to get rid of the bitter taste and bad press. When the players openly admit to being embarrassed by the result of their last effort, expect their best effort next time out. You can’t get much more embarrassed than giving up 70 points and losing by 40 points.

Being back at home and playing the sacrificial lamb Green Wave is just what the Golden Hurricane needs here, as they are 6-0 SU (+42.3 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+29.7 ppg) in their last 6 home/neutral site games, and 3-0 SU (+27.7 ppg) & 3-0 ATS (+14.7 ppg) the last 3 years vs. Tulane.

Finally, we have a couple of NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS that demonstrate just how strongly Tulsa should rebound here. The first one states:

From Game 5 on, play ON a conference home favorite of 24+ points off a SU loss of 22+ points.

Under those simple conditions, these angry teams have gone 18-0 SU (+42.1 ppg) & 17-0-1 ATS (+14 ppg) since 1993. It’s 2-0 SU & ATS this season, with Missouri’s 58-0 blasting of Colorado as a 24-point favorite as the most recent example.

Secondly, after allowing an embarrassing 70 points in its previous game, teams have come back strong against opponents not off a big win. This POWER SYSTEM instructs:

Play ON a team off allowing 70+ points vs. an opponent not off a SU win 12+ points.

Just since 2004 these teams are 13-0 ATS, beating the spread by 13 points per game on average. The most recent example was, ironically enough, UAB against Tulane just last week. The Blazers had given up 70 points to Southern Mississippi, but bounced back to defeat the Green Wave 41-24 as 4-point road dogs to beat the spread by 3 TDs.

Now Tulane must face another ticked-off team, and if they thought UAB gave them a hard time, they are in for a really long day in Tulsa. It wouldn’t surprise us to see the Golden Hurricane to put up 70 points here to really get last week’s loss out of their system. Even if they fall short of that number, they should have no problem flattening the Green Wave and easily covering this 4-TD number.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TULSA 56 TULANE 17

The Aztecs, behind 10-year coach Steve Fisher are coming off their third straight 20-win season. Injuries last year meant ten different starting line-ups. They were to return all five starters but Forward Lorenzo Wade is out indefinitely due to legal problems. That should not be a problem for this Aztec team as they are facing a team of walk-ons at Fresno State.

FSU will send four walk-ons to the court today with guards that cannot score and big men who can bang the boards but lack any hoops skills. This Fresno team is certainly considered to be in transition or in a rebuilding program.

SDS will send Sr. 6-8 Ryan Amoroso, a former Marquette transfer and 6-5 Kyle Spain who averages 13.2 ppg.& 5.4 rebounds to the floor today along with Mountain West Freshman of the Year, 6-8 Billy White. This combination of skilled players will be too much for a rebuilding Bulldogs team today.

Key Angles: FRESNO ST is 9-19 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons. FRESNO ST is 3-11 ATS after one or more consecutive overs the last 2 seasons. FRESNO ST is 7-17 ATS after playing a road game over the last 3 seasons. FRESNO ST is 13-23-1 ATS after going over in their last game. SDS is 3-0 ATS the last three in this series.

Key Systems: Play On CBB team after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games, with all five starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season, 40-15 ATS the last five seasons.

GRADED PREDICTION: 3* (732) San Diego State -16

Missouri State will have a chance at a little SEC Conference revenge tonight as they host the Razorbacks. The Bears traveled to the plains back on November 4th and lost to Auburn 75 to 60. They were plagued by the zebras in that contest as they were called for 26 fouls; five of the Bears players ended the game with four personal fouls.

The Razorbacks are in a rebuilding year and we know that because only 19% of last years’ minutes return. Six seniors are gone and second-team All-SEC Jr. Patrick Beverly, who logged 33.8 mpg and would have been the Hogs leading returning scorer, was dismissed from the team in August. This is after rookie coach John Pelphrey led the Hogs to a 23-12 season and their first NCAA Tournament victory in nine years. PG Stefan Walsh, 5.3 ppg, 2.1 apg, is the only returning starter. Since there are no expectations and no seniors on the squad, the recruiting class of seven will have a chance to learn on the job.

They will certainly be learning on the job here as the Bears can shoot the three extremely well as evidenced by their 11 for 23 performance on the plains with the zebras calling everything against them. Their perimeter shooting and the pace will be too much for this Razorback team that is in the midst of transition and rebuilding.

Key Angles: Arkansas is 85-117-7 ATS overall, 34-55-4 ATS when installed as an underdog, 29-58-4 ATS on the highway, 22-45-4 ATS as an away underdog, 36-55-4 ATS coming off a spread loss in their last game and 4-14 ATS in road games after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds since 1997.

Key Systems: Missouri State qualifies in two positive technical situations that play ON teams that are coming off two “Unders” and are now at home facing a non-conference opponent, this situation is 290-234-13 ATS and if they are favored in the game the record is 238-191-10 ATS.

GRADED PREDICTION: 3* (746) Missouri State -3