Missouri is coming off a loss against rival Kansas and it is safe to say it was pretty embarrassed at home. The Tigers lost that game by 21 points and it was a game that they came into with al to of confidence as they were on a 6-2 run. Missouri is one of those teams that have been dominant at home but very average on the road but it comes in with three wins in its last five road games and one of those losses came at Baylor by a bucket. One of those wins was at Nebraska by 15 points which was the second win against the Huskers this season, the first coming by 17 points at home. That brings up the angle of how it is tough to beat the same teams three times in a season but it is not going to be difficult here as the Tigers have advantages all over the floor. Missouri has shown vulnerability against teams with a strong post presence and that was no more evident in season series against Kansas. In the two games, the Tigers lost by 20 points on average, were outrebounded 101-56 and outshot 50.8 percent to 32.5 percent. Missouri need not worry about that here as Nebraska is one of the smaller teams in the conference and the Tigers can control the glass and not overly worry about defending the inside. Nebraska finished with its worst even season in the Big XII, going 2-14. This included a 0-8 record on the road and while this game is on a neutral floor, it will not matter as there is no momentum coming into this game. The Huskers have struggled on both ends of the floor and a team like Missouri, who is streaky, can take big advantage. Over the last seven games, the once stout defense allowed 81.1 ppg and not helping is the offense that finished last in scoring offense with 66.3 ppg and they were the only Big XII team to average fewer than 70 ppg. Nebraska went just 4-9 ATS this season as an underdog of more than three points while the Tigers went 4-1 ATS as favorites between 10 and 20 points. Also, over the last two seasons Missouri is 10-2 ATS coming off a conference loss. 9* Missouri Tigers

Southern Mississippi enters this game on a bit of a roll with two straight comfortable wins including one over today’s opponent. It was an up and down season for the Golden Eagles who are still thinking postseason tournament albeit the NIT or CBI. They have every right to as they finished the conference season with an 8-8 record. Looking deeper into this record shows that they went 0-8 against teams that finished above them in the conference standings and all of which had at least 10 C-USA wins. They went 8-0 against the teams that finished below them in the conference standings and the scoring margins show that it was close to an even better season. Those eight wins came by an average of 10.4 ppg while those eight losses came by only 5.6 ppg. Seven of those defeats were by single digits including three by three points or fewer and remember, those were all against the upper echelon of the conference. Now playing everyone on a neutral playing field, Southern Mississippi can make some noise and it is ready to make a run and will not be looking past anyone. “One of my favorite coaches told me, ‘Anytime you get at least 17 wins, you’ve had a heck of a year,’ ” Southern Mississippi head coach Larry Eustachy said. “So we’ve had a heck of a year. We need a couple of more to get into one of these postseason tournaments. The urgency is there.” That is the kind of talk we like to hear in these spots. Tulane was miserable this season in what was supposed to be a good year. The Green Wave finished 3-13 in C-USA with two of those wins coming against last place Rice which went 1-15 in the conference. They are coming off an upset win over Houston in the regular season finale which could provide some confidence but there is no chemistry on this team. Injuries completely deflated this team as the Green Wave were forced to use 13 different starting lineups this season and that is obviously not good for team consistency. 12 different players played at least 20 games and 13 different players started and while that provided good experience, it is not an ideal situation at all. The two-game streak may not seem like much for the Golden Eagles but this has been a team that feeds off wins. They are 8-2 ATS this season away from home coming off a win and they are 13-4 ATS in all games coming off a cover. Southern Mississippi is 5-1 ATS this season as a single-digit favorite and the price is right once again. 10* Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

I have faded Texas numerous times down the stretch this season and a lot of those times it paid off as the Longhorns simply fell apart and struggled down the stretch. Because they started the season 17-0 and were ranked number one in the country at one point, they were overvalued in a lot of situations as the linesmakers had no choice but to inflate those lines based on public perception. However, I feel the value is actually on the side of Texas now and a lot of that is because of the first meeting between these two teams. The Longhorns were favored by eight points at Iowa St. less than two months back and that would have made them roughly a 12-point favorite on a neutral floor. Now Texas is favored by only nine points and while that first meeting was when Texas was playing good, this is a team no one should want to face come tournament time. Iowa St. came into the season with lofty expectations but it was another disappointing campaign as it finished 4-12 in the conference. Even though his numbers are solid, forward Craig Brackins took a step backwards and once projected as a lottery pick, that is not the case anymore. Some sources have called him lazy with the inability to make adjustments when needed. He had a very average game in the first meeting against Texas and he will likely struggle again against the solid Longhorns frontcourt. The Cyclones picked up an improbable road win at Kansas St. in their last game and while it may be a confidence boost, I do not see a repeat. The victory over the Wildcats snapped a 21-game road losing streak against ranked teams and while Texas is not ranked, I consider it right there. Texas’ depth will be a chief concern for the thin Cyclones. One of the biggest drawbacks for Texas was its ability to shoot free throws, which it simply could not do. The Longhorns have improved dramatically in that category, hitting 71.9 percent over their last five games and overall, they are hitting just 2.4 percent less than what the Cyclones are hitting from the line. The normal disadvantage is negated by the inability of Iowa St. to hit those foul shots as well. Other than that, Texas has advantages across the board, most notable offensive efficiency and overall efficiency. The Longhorns have an overall efficiency rating differential of +18.9 which is the second biggest of all of the conference games on the board today and that is a major difference. When we see a difference that big, we are usually dealing with a big double-digit line but that is not the case here. The Cyclones are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games coming off a win as an underdog and they are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games as underdogs between 7.0 and 12.5 points. Texas has been a non-covering machine of late but this is the time the gas pedal is pushed to the limit. 10* Texas Longhorns

After losing with Seton Hall last night in a horrendous beat, it would be easy to lay off the Pirates tonight but this situation calls for a repeat play. The Pirates nearly blew a 29-point lead last night against Providence and ended up winning by only three points. That type of near disaster can do two things. It can completely deflate a team or it can give a team extra incentive the next time out. I believe it is going to be the latter in this case especially coming back to play the very next night. Seton Hall still thinks it has a legitimate shot as an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament and I cannot disagree. It has been a tough season for the Pirates in that things could be so much better. They own a résumé of seven losses coming by single digits, six coming against teams that will be dancing most likely with four of those coming in overtime. Seton Hall is 0-4 in overtime games, the last two coming by a combined three points with the other two coming against Virginia Tech and West Virginia. Notre Dame has been the talk of the conference with four straight wins over big name teams and just like that, the Irish will be dancing. The public is well aware of this and is already all over Notre Dame in this one. As mentioned, nothing is guaranteed for the Pirates but I actually have them ranked higher than Notre Dame while also playing a much tougher schedule. Seton Hall also has a higher RPI than Norte Dame so a win here just might secure the ninth team from the Big East into the NCAA Tournament. Still, the Pirates desperately need quality wins at the Big East Tournament, such as another one over Notre Dame on Wednesday, to give them a better chance at The Dance. I commend Notre Dame for playing as good as it has of late but I think it was able to sneak up on teams that had looked past the Irish. Seton Hall will certainly not be doing that especially knowing that it escaped with a three-point win at home over the Irish right before they started getting hot. While the recent run has been great, you cannot look past the fact that Notre Dame also owns losses against St. John’s and Rutgers so it has had its down moments as well. I expect the Pirates to show up big time here to get the win and keep those NCAA Tournament hopes alive. 9* Seton Hall Pirates

Philadelphia is a team in turmoil right now and heading in the complete worst direction possible. There is talk about firing head coach Eddie Jordan and that type of distraction is not good for anyone on the team. The Sixers have lost six of their last seven games and are 3-9 over their last 12 games following a five-game winning streak prior to the All-Star break. There was talk about a possible playoff run at the time as Philadelphia was right in the hunt in the Eastern Conference but after this prior skid, it is eight and a half games out of eighth place and the white towel has officially been tossed. As for Charlotte, the Bobcats are very much in the thick of things as they are holding down the seventh/eighth spot with Miami but both are ahead of Chicago by just a half-game so the winning needs to continue. The Bobcats also trail the Bucks by only two games for the fifth spot in the standings so the bottom half of those are still very much up in the air. Charlotte is 23-8 at home but just 8-23 on the road so it is pretty obvious why it is stuck at .500. The winning on the road has improved however as the Bobcats are 5-6 in their last 11 road games which is quite impressive after starting the season with a 3-17 away record through 20 games. We all know how motivation plays a big role in the NBA and that will be case here. Charlotte will be the bigger motivated team tonight and facing a team that is just 10-19 at home is far from intimidating. As rough as the road has been, Charlotte has actually been a road favorite five times this season, winning three of those games. Philadelphia meanwhile is just 2-10 both straight up and against the number as a home underdog which clearly shows the struggles as it simply does not get up for these games. It is also a dismal 1-9 ATS this season in home games coming off a road loss. Charlotte has won three straight games and has gotten some confidence back following a rough stretch where it went 4-9 against a very tough schedule. 10* Charlotte Bobcats

Georgetown surely has not forgotten the home loss it suffered against South Florida earlier this season so it will be out for some payback this afternoon. That is an angle however that is not going to be in play because of the magnitude of this game for both sides. The Hoyas closed the season with losses in four of their last six games and while the last game was a dominating performance against Cincinnati, the inconsistencies play a bigger role. The defense especially has fallen off as Georgetown is allowing 45.4 percent shooting over its last five games and the Bulls can take advantage. South Florida did not play well yesterday at all as it managed only 58 points on 43.3 percent shooting and that is actually a good thing as I would rather back South Florida coming off a bad game than had it played lights out yesterday. There is one huge factor that may be overlooked here and that is taking care of the ball. South Florida is averaging only 12.3 tpg on the season and its assist/turnover ratio margin is +0.06 on the year. The Hoyas meanwhile have a ratio margin of +0.08 which is right in line with the Bulls and they are forcing just 13.0 tpg overall. This is big since South Florida takes care of the ball so well and it is a very solid 24-3 ATS in the 27 games since head coach Stan Heath took over against teams that are forcing fewer than 14.0 tpg. South Florida is also a perfect 5-0 ATS this season as underdogs of seven points or fewer and playing well has been contagious as the Bulls are 15-3 ATS this season following a win. Georgetown meanwhile is just 7-25-1 ATS in its last 33 games coming off a cover. The Bulls played yesterday and fatigue is not a factor early on in these tournaments and they actually have an edge in my opinion with a game already played at MSG yesterday. South Florida is still playing for the NCAA Tournament and a win here will go a long way in getting that bid. 9* South Florida Bulls

Playing these small conference games can give us a lot of value as the linesmakers are simply making their best guesses for these numbers. We are going with Sam Houston St. tonight in the first round of the Southland Conference Tournament. This line may seem big but it is big for a reason as the top seed in this tournament pretty much cruised through the conference slate with a 14-2 record and both of those losses came in overtime in true road games. The last loss happened to come in the final game of the season but don’t read too much into that as a momentum killer as the Bearkats had nothing on the line as the number one seed in the tournament was already locked up. This team is solid on both ends of the floor as offensively, Sam Houston St. finished the season with the highest scoring offense in the Southland, averaging 81.8 ppg and it betted that with a 99 ppg average over its last three games. The Bearkats led the country in assists and its assist/turnover ratio is an incredible 1.56, fourth in the nation. Defensively, this is where they have shown steady improvement after some rough non-conference games. Guard play is extremely important this time of year and the Bearkats backcourt is a strength as proven by those assist numbers and ratios. The Bearcats are ranked 16th in the latest mid-major top 25 poll. They take on Nicholls St. who snuck into the tournament thanks to winning its final two games of the regular season and grabbing the final spot. The Colonels finished 7-9 in the conference but four of those wins came against teams that did not qualify for the postseason and the three that did were all by close margins. This team struggles on defense and that is a problem in this matchup. The Colonels defense allowed a league-worst 52.6 percent shooting from league opponents. Even though they went 4-1 down the stretch and improved that porous defense, the shooting percentage allowed was still 47.2 percent over those final five games and I consider that pretty weak still. The first meeting was a close one as Sam Houston St. snuck out with a six-point victory but that game was as in Thibodaux and was a complete aberration for the Bearkats. They committed an uncharacteristic 20 turnovers and that led to 11 more shot attempts for the Colonels. Despite this, Sam Houston outshot Nicholls St. 59.5 percent to 43.8 percent and if not for the miscues that led to a 17-4 Colonels run, it would have been a blowout. Sam Houston is 2-0 ATS in its two lined games this season, winning and covering against Oral Roberts and Rider. Nicholls St. meanwhile went 1-4 ATS with some ugly blowouts. 3* Sam Houston St. Bearkats

The incredibly bad beat by Seton Hall is now a distant memory as Matt looks forward to getting back to WINNING! The first big conference tourney card is full of opportunities including a 10* TOP Report! These plays have been EXCEPTIONAL as his 10* Reports are 34-18-3 ATS (65.4%) YTD!This one goes late but make sure you get it early! Another HUGE GOY Winner right here! Guaranteed!