Super Bowl XLVI - Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN New England vs. New York Giants With the way the Giants are playing right now, and add in the fact that the NFC was definitely the stronger conference this year. I feel the wrong team is favored here for this years Super Bowl. The odds makers know that the Patriots and Brady are a name brand, and that every public bet made on this game will be on the Patriots. So they had to open up New England as a favorite here. Privately before the public had a chance to bet on the game - the books posted 4 than 3 1/2 to see what the sharps would do - and they immediately pounded the Giants. So the sport books had to open this line at 3 to try and get their equal action. The Giants already went up to Foxboro and defeated the Patriots on their own field. Now they get them on a faster indoor surface that Eli and the Giants offense will excel even more against this New England defense that ranked 31st in total defense, and passing defense. While defensively with firm footing under them this Giants defensive front will be in Brady's face all game long. They have proved in the past that they can raddle Brady and they will do again today in a big way. Eli Manning is the best quarterback in the entire league in a pressure situation, and he will prove it again today on the biggest stage as the world watches today. The New York Giants walk off the field as the Super Bowl champions here today. Plus here is a strong situational trend favoring the Giants in this spot that has gone 43-18 hitting at a 71% clip. Play On - Underdogs or pick (NY Giants) - after beating the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. NY Giants are 8-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. NY Giants are 12-3 ATS in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6 yards/play. NY Giants are 10-2 ATS in road games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game **********Super Bowl Props********** Prop #1 Will the National Anthem be over 94 seconds long? I like the Under here getting the nice +155 - as Kelly Clarkson averages 1 minute, 31 seconds when singing the National Anthem. She has only gone over 1 minute, 34 seconds one time in her career. Prop #2 First score of the game will be: First score of the game TD -195 First score of the game not a TD +180 Going with the "not a TD" result here getting the +180 - as these Super bowls are tough on the players to get started with the 2 week layoff and nerves thrown in. I look for the first scoring drive to stall resulting in a field goal opening up the scoring. Prop #3 Travis Beckum - 10.5 yards receiving (OVER)... -115 With the Patriots emphasizing stopping the Giants big wide receivers - will open things up for Eli to hit a wide open Beckum a few times to easily get over the posted 10.5 yards here. Prop #4 A ton of Sharp money Under action has started to come in heavy on this opening total - So going with this Alternative totals prop play: GIANTS/PATRIOTS OVER 48.5 -230 GIANTS/PATRIOTS UNDER 48.5 +195 Going with the Under 48.5 at the +195 Prop #5 WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE 3 STRAIGHT TIMES? **Excludes extra points and 2 point conversions ***Includes safeties YES -175 NO +155 With these two potent offenses I just can't see either team scoring 3 straight times - so going with the NO here at +155 Prop # 6 Most Penalty Yards **(Declined penalties do not count) GIANTS -110 PATRIOTS -110 With the Giants having the stronger pass rush & Wide Receivers - I can see the Patriots getting called for more holding penalties and maybe a big pass interference call. So going with New England getting the more penalties at -110 Prop $7 WILL BOTH TEAMS MAKE 33 YARD OR LONGER FIELD GOALS? YES +155 NO -175 With this game figuring to be close throughout - I definitely can see both teams hitting a field goal form the 23 yard line or further out. So Yes +155 the play here Prop #8 WILL TOM BRADY (NE) THROW AN INTERCEPTION? Yes -140 No +120 I just don't like the way that Brady is seeing the field right now - as his play against the Ravens will attest to. So going to lay the juice here and say Yes Brady will throw a interception. Yes -140 Prop #9 WILL EITHER TEAM MAKE A FIELD GOAL IN THE FIRST QUARTER? YES EVEN NO -120 As I stated earlier these Super Bowls tend to start slow with the time between games, and all the emotion thrown in. So I can definitely see a scoring drive stall and a field goal being made in the First Quarter. Yes - even Prop #10 TOTAL GROSS PASSING YARDS BY: ELI MANNING (NYG) OVER 308.5 -110 UNDER 308.5 -110 This is a Sharp money prop play as the under has gotten hit hard here by the smart money - as I feel the Giants will be doing a bunch of running in the 4th quarter trying to run clock. UNDER 308.5 -110 the play here.

Michigan at Michigan State Going with the Spartans in this spot against their main rival - as first their coming into this game with triple revenge on their side. Plus this Michigan State squad is money at home going 13-0 this season outscoring their opponents 81-56. In their home conference games they are 4-0 defeating Indiana by 15, Iowa by 34, Purdue by 25, and Minnesota by 16. So you can see how they become the highly recommended play here today. Play on - A favorite (Michigan Stare) - after a game where a team made 28% of their shots or worse. This solid trend has hot at a 66% clip over the past 5 seasons. Michigan State is 19-8 ATS after a close loss by 3 points or less. Michigan State is 15-4 ATS in home games after a combined score of 125 points or less 2 straight games. Michigan State is 33-8 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Michigan State is 26-12 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent.

The Capitals the very live dog here - as the Bruins have had troble hitting the back of the net as of late. Plus this Washington squad matches up really well against Boston. Bruins are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. Southeast. Bruins are 0-4 in their last 4 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Capitals are 6-2 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Capitals are 11-4 in their last 15 Sunday games.