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YESTERDAY'S PICKS
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| Thursday, March 11, 2010 |
| Iowa vs. Michigan (NCAAB) - 2:30 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 116/-108 Under Play Title: Iowa vs. Michigan |
Score Not Available At This Time |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
Iowa was expected to be beneath the level of play needed to compete in the Big-12, and they for the most part have proven that. What wasn't expected was the fact that this Michigan team struggled as much as they did. The offense just imploded on many nights, and they failed to even get out of the 40s in four of their last 13 games. The offensive ineptness allowed for the Wolverines to play 14 of their final 17 games to the UNDER. The Hawkeyes aren't much more efficient on the offensive end as four of their last 10 have failed to get out of the 40s themselves. This one looks ugly, will play slow, so points will be hard to come by. I'll go with the UNDER here.
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| Central Florida vs. UTEP (NCAAB) - 10:00 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 133/-108 Under Play Title: Central Florida vs. UTEP |
Score Not Available At This Time |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
Central Florida may have some "Jordan" blood on the roster with Marcus Jordan, but it is translating better on the defensive end. The Golden Knights have no players averaging more than 10 points per game, and gets it done on the defensive end, now at 9-5 to the UNDER in their last 14. The Miners come in here at 24-5 and like to get up and down, but I don't see that being the case in this one. This is a team that scored in the 50s just four times all season, and two of those have been in the last four games. The pressure mounts as this team is no guarantee for the dance without a win here. I'll go with the UNDER in this one.
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| Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh (NCAAB) - 7:00 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 125.5/-103 Under Play Title: Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh |
Score Not Available At This Time |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
The Pittsburgh Panthers have always been known for their defensive toughness, and that has carried them through the last decade as a top team. Their last six games have produced just 62 points per game for opponents. While Notre Dame was trying to up-tempo everyone, they started winning when their focus shifted to the defensive end, where over their last five games, all wins, they have allowed just 56.6 ppg. Notre Dame has also played seven straight UNDERs at neutral sites, and Pitt is 7-3 to the UNDER in their last 10 as a neutral-site favorite. UNDER gets the call.
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| Colorado State vs. San Diego State (NCAAB) - 5:30 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 128/-108 Under Play Title: Colorado State vs. San Diego State |
Score Not Available At This Time |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
The San Diego State Aztecs could all but put a lock-up an NCAA bid with a win here. They have been a force, locking down opponents offenses this season. Colorado State has averaged just 53.5 points per game against them this season in the two games played. They aren't alone as only the conference's elite have scored against this team. Colorado State has really been slowed offensively by the top tier of the conference. San Diego has played to a 38-18-1 mark to the UNDER in their last 57 as a favorite, including their last four at a neutral site. I'll go with the UNDER in this one.
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| Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (NHL) - 7:05 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Money Line: 111 Tampa Bay Lightning Play Title: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs |
Score Not Available At This Time |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs are a poor hockey team. Anytime they are posted as a favorite, you have to look for reasons to play against them. The Maple Leafs have surprisingly been a favorite 19 times on the season and are just 5-14 in those games. Recently, they have been an even worse 1-7, so the plus odds here with the Lightning certainly show some immediate value, especially when you factor in that they have won six of the last eight meetings between these two clubs. The Maple Leafs are also just 1-8 in their last nine games when playing a team with a losing record. I'll go with a live dog here, and back Tampa Bay.
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| So Mississippi vs. UAB (NCAAB) - 3:30 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 117/-112 Under Play Title: So Mississippi vs. UAB |
Score Not Available At This Time |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
The Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles play one of the slowest games in C-USA. When they get into the tournament, those numbers are going down with just 104 points scored in their opener. It is nothing new for a team that is 17-6 to the UNDER over their last 23 games. They are genuinely the Princeton of the Midwest. Both regular season games vs. UAB would have failed to top this total, and with the stakes higher that means the defensive intensity will be higher as well. Southern Miss has played to a 10-1 UNDER mark after a straight-up win. UAB is no stranger to the UNDER either vs. a good team, cashing the UNDER in 11 of their last 15 vs. teams with a winning percentage of over .600. UNDER is the call here.
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| Nebraska vs. Texas A&M (NCAAB) - 3:00 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 123/-108 Under Play Title: Nebraska vs. Texas A&M |
Score Not Available At This Time |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
The Cornhuskers worked their plan perfectly upsetting Missouri handily in the tournament opener. After allowing the Tigers 70+ in both regular season games, they slowed them down holding them to 60. A&M has really worked hard on the defensive end after some early-season shortcomings as they have held the last seven opponents to 60 points per game. That has led to six of the last seven failing to reach the total. Nebraska has come back defensive after a win where they are 19-7 to the UNDER after posting a win. These teams have also played four of the last five under, so I like UNDER in this one as well.
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| North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech (NCAAB) - 7:00 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 143.5/-108 Under Play Title: WUNDERDOG'S ACC Tourney-Total SLAM |
Score Not Available At This Time |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
It has been a surprising year for the Tar Heels, not that they have fallen off from last year, but just how far they fell. This team has apparently regressed from the onset of the season as offensively, they have really struggled. This is a team that was in the 70s or higher in 15 of their first 16 games, with 11 games at 80+. They never touched 80 again the rest of the season, hitting the 70s on six occasions - quite a decline. They scored just 51 on this Tech team, so looking at the 140s here is simply way too high. The Heels are now under in 17 of their last 22, so I'll go UNDER here.
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| St. Louis Blues vs. New York Islanders (NHL) - 7:05 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Money Line: 121 New York Islanders Play Title: St. Louis Blues vs. New York Islanders |
Score Not Available At This Time |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
Considering the Islanders dropped their first three games at home on the season, they have played remarkably well here since. They have a poor recent record, but subtracting the eight straight losses on the road, they have done well at home. The Blues had won five straight before imploding their last time out, allowing seven goals against them. That has been a very bad omen for this club as they have followed an opponent’s onslaught of 5 goals or more by going just 16-35 in their next game. The Islanders have stepped-up vs. good road teams, logging eight wins in their last 10 at home vs. a road team with a winning record. I'll go with the Islanders here.
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| Alabama A&M vs. Alabama State (NCAAB) - 3:30 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 133/-119 Under Play Title: Alabama A&M vs. Alabama State |
Score Not Available At This Time |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
I wouldn't be fooled by the pair of high-scoring games these clubs played during the regular season as there is suddenly so much at stake in this one. This game will be played much tighter. The Alabama State Hornets have come up with some big defensive efforts this season, and 10 of their last 13 opponents have scored 64 points or less. Alabama A&M has seen each of its last five neutral site games all fail to reach the total, so I don't see this one changing that streak. I'll go with the UNDER in this one.
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| LSU vs. Tennessee (NCAAB) - 3:20 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 126/-108 Under Play Title: LSU vs. Tennessee |
Score Not Available At This Time |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
The LSU Tigers fell hard and fast. This wasn't supposed to be a banner year for the Bayou Bengals, but they fell off the face of the Earth, generating just a pair of conference wins. They never got out of the 60s in 16 conference games, except one time at home vs. Auburn. Away from the comforts of home, this team reached 60 points just one time without the benefit of overtime, covering 11 games. That means it is likely that Tennessee is going to have to be in the 80s here and that has happened just five times against LSU all season. This one looks low, but it isn't low enough, so I'm playing UNDER here.
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| UCLA vs. Arizona (NCAAB) - 3:00 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 136.5/-108 Under Play Title: UCLA vs. Arizona |
Score Not Available At This Time |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
The Wildcats’ longest streak of consecutive NCAA appearances is likely coming to an end - unless they can run the table in the Pac-10 Tournament. UCLA has really dropped back after a several-year run at the top. This is a team that laid 100 points on New Mexico State early in the season, but failed to top 77 points in any other game, so they truly have struggled offensively. The Bruins don't have the offense to win this one, so they have to win it on the defensive end, that strategy has produced a 5-1-1 mark to the UNDER in their last seven as a dog of 6.5 or less. The Wildcats are 13-6 as a neutral-court favorite in their last 19. I'll play the UNDER in this one.
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| Florida Panthers vs. Colorado Avalanche (NHL) - 9:05 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Money Line: 165 Florida Panthers Play Title: Florida Panthers vs. Colorado Avalanche |
Score Not Available At This Time |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
The Avalanche closed the season last year coming out on the right side of just one of their last 13. They have made a dramatic turnaround this season, but their recent play is more in tuned to last year than what they did earlier. The Avalanche have a losing record over their last 15 games - a stretch that has seen them score 2 or fewer goals in seven of the 15. That is significant, since they have allowed three or more in each of their last six! The Panthers went into the Olympic break losers of their last six, but have come back to now having won three straight. They have scored 14 goals in the three games. The Avalanche are struggling coming back after allowing 5 goals or more in their last game at just 6-15. I'll go with Florida here.
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| Miami Florida vs. Wake Forest (NCAAB) - 2:25 PM EST |
Free Play |
| Play: Total: 134/-108 Under Play Title: Miami Florida vs. Wake Forest |
Score Not Available At This Time |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
The Hurricanes have been held to the 60s or less in 10 ACC games, and aren't a team that likes to get out and run, but would rather work in the half-court. After touching 70 in 13 of their first 17 games, Wake Forest has slowed to just three topping the 70 mark in their last 11. That has led to 10 of their last 12 playing to the UNDER. The Hurricanes have been 17-8 to the UNDER in their last 25 at a neutral site, while Wake Forest has played 9-3 to the UNDER following an ATS win. These teams have played their last six head-to-head meetings all to the UNDER. I'll play on the UNDER here.
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RECENT ARTICLES & NOTES
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Is Parity in the NFL Gone? |
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Oct 16, 2009 |
As you know if you've followed my NFL picks over the years, I am an underdog bettor in the NFL regular-season. I believe it's where the value lies long-term in the NFL. If you want to read more on why I feel that way, check out my NFL betting philosophy.
But underdogs aren't doing so hot so far this season. And big underdogs are really laying big eggs. While historically they have hit over 5 ...
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